Bailing out the Titanic

with a teaspoon.

It looks like the Wall Street bailout bill is going to pass. I am distraught with the actions of our Democratic caucus.

There are those who believe we are on the cusp of financial disaster. People I respect a great deal are in favor of doing something, even if it is wrong. Plug the financial hole before it sinks the ship.

The problem is that I think this is the wrong analogy. My feeling is that this is more like the boy with his finger in the dyke. We've plugged one hole, but there are many more that are likely to lead to collapse. Economists are already declaring that $700b is only a start. Mind boggling.

I've done my best. I've written and called my congressional delegation. I've urged my friends and family, and some folks I barely know, to do the same. I'm not sure how my delegation will vote, but I'm watching like a hawk.

In the final analysis, most economists seem to be saying that we are approaching this from the wrong end. We are buying up bad assets at premium prices - taxpayers will be left with worthless securities - thus bailing out the people who made these very poor decisions.

Warren Buffet showed that there is capital in the system. The problem is that the Wall Street moguls do not want to suffer the consequences of the free-market. To get Buffet's cash, Goldman-Sachs had to give a sweetheart deal. The money from the market comes at a premium. On the other hand, the money from taxpayers comes with very few restrictions.

There was one thing I agreed with McCain about during the debate Friday. This is just the end of the beginning. We are in for a long slog now that we have put chips on the table. Watch as we furiously try to protect this initial $700b investment with even more taxpayer dough.

Gamblers call this "throwing good money after bad." I have a feeling that voters are going to make incumbents pay for this bad, bad decision.

Debate follow-up

There was a general feeling of let-down at the debate party I attended at the conclusion of the debate. Many felt that Obama did not do enough to stop McCain's bullying tactics.

I felt a little differently. It seemed to me that Obama was not debating for the votes of the people that I watched the debate with. Indeed, even if most of Sen McCain's wild accusations against Sen Obama were true, Obama would have carried the room I was in by a landslide. Obama was courting undecideds and slight lean McCain votes.

McCain's erratic behavior has provided enough fodder for folks just slightly leaning toward him to pause. There is no reasonable way to explain his bizarre campaign and the media has simply given up trying to find plausible explanations for him. Combine that with Schmidt and Davis basically declaring war on the media, and you have the makings of a self-destructing campaign.

Obama and his staff of aces understand this in a way that those of us on the left simply cannot comprehend. I remember feeling this way during the Dem debates when I thought Obama could have cleaned Clinton's clock. But he didn't. And even though, allegedly, legions of Clinton supporters bearing pitchforks and torches were upset with Obama, he never retaliated or made Clinton look bad. Obama simply refused to pour fuel on his opponents rage...

He has done the same with McCain. As McCain hates Obama more with each passing day, Obama offers praise and friendship. Always reaching out - at least in appearances. Yes, there are campaign slams, but these are mostly about policy, and McCain's judgement about those policies. Obama is offering a road map for those not happy with McCain's recent metamorphosis to vote for the Dems. It is working spectacularly.

There is a lot of time left in this election. Anything can happen. Obama's margin for error is probably smaller than for any other candidate for president in our history. Not only do the Obama people know this, they have used it to their advantage.

Debate pointers

When the circumstances get uncomfortable, some people tend to overreact. We've all had a co-worker we can relate this to. The person who takes everything personally, and turns minor social slights into third-stage showdowns. Backing away from these people can be dicey, especially when people are looking to you for leadership.

McCain has shown he is one of these hard to predict, erratic people. He has been a wind sock in a tornado. A dog chasing cars at the demolition derby. Simply out of control. He has no plan, chaos is his only ally at this point. I fully expect several moments tonight where McCain's erratic behavior puts Obama on the spot.

McCain is under enormous stress. His campaign is floundering, wildly throwing darts in every direction hoping to pin a donkey. His campaign strategy to date has been the surprise - guerrilla tactics if you will. The Swamp Fox (I think McCain might have served with Francis Marion - I'll have to check.). Expect McCain to continue this routine tonight. Anything less gives credence to the fact that Obama belongs on the stage with him...something McCain simply cannot accept.

The stress, lack of sleep, and let's not forget Palin's recent poor performances will be weighing heavily on McCain tonight. Thus far, the media, and the polls, have rewarded McCain for most of his antics...the latest bailout fiasco notwithstanding. He loves to gamble. Expect him to double-down in a reprehensible fashion tonight.

My feeling is that Obama must be prepared to fight back. This is not going to be won on points. Not by a long-shot.

Rescue Me

With the limited information we have had, I have been against the large bailout plan proposed by the administration. While not rejecting the premise out of hand, I have agreed in principle with many who want strict conditions on this plan. These conditions must have teeth, and not be window dressing designed to look like something they are not.

I am also in favor of limited outlays of taxpayer dollars. No person in their right mind would sink so much dough into a plan that has no guarantees of success. I am fearful that Obama's preference to be seen as post-partisan will box him in to supporting a bad bill that includes conservative Republican demands.

This is a Republican mess. There are Republicans playing politics with a potential permanent solution. My suggestion? Create a short-term solution that needs no bi-partisan support and gets us to November. Examine the success of the solution after the election, providing more support if needed to get us to the new administration and new Congress.

Let's get politics out of this mess.

Airspace

That's the word that keeps rumbling around in my thoughts as I watched the Couric interviews with Palin.

Honestly, can anyone, in any party, think that Palin is a good choice for Ambassador to Alaska, let alone the Vice Presidency? This is going to get very ugly. I'd love to be a fly on the wall in the McCain campaign - the internecine struggle at this point must be getting deadly. Watch for the rats jumping from the sinking ship. Note who they are, because it will tell us much about which direction the Molly McCain will be sailing in.

Airspace. Seriously, airspace.

Republican Movement

to dump McCain.

Good lord, McCain has become completely unhinged. He has shifted his position like an organ grinder - not for bailouts, for bailouts, suspending campaigns, not suspending campaigns, won't debate, will debate...ayeyaya.

What we are witnessing is a train wreck in slow motion. McCain is the engineer. Upon seeing the upcoming cliff, McCain is pulling back hard on all levers and trying to stop or turn the train around. Nothing is working.

There isn't much left to do, and how McCain responds will speak volumes about him, as it did of the Clintons. When the fight was lost, the Clintons continued to hammer and punish Obama. They went racial - don't think for a moment that Bill's antics in South Carolina weren't intended for audiences in PA and Ohio - they went personal. It didn't work then, I feel more confident it won't work now. Obama and the Dems gave the Clintons a second chance - I am not enamored by the lukewarm support thus far.

Sadly, I expect McCain to unleash a fury of personal and ad hominem attacks on Obama tonight. McCain cannot afford a tie. He cannot afford to have Obama look strong and presidential. Obama must maintain his composure, parry McCain effectively, and take the fight to McCain at times, hoping to keep McCain on his heels.

There are ramped up expectations for tonight. Millions will tune in... Tonight's the night that makes me nervous.

Republican movement

to dumb Palin.

At what point is Palin mauled by polar bears, making room for Romney on the ticket? Seriously.

Republicans cannot be happy with her performance, and must be petrified about Tuesday Night Lights in front of a national audience. Under the most modest of circumstances, with soft lighting and a friendly interviewer, Palin is withering. And folks, these aren't hard questions that Couric is asking. I'm willing to bet that most people who pay attention day-to-day could give better answers.

The powers that be in the Republican party must be pretty anxious right now. I'm sure that Schmidt, Davis and the rest of the campaign staff are getting earfuls about this. It's really that obvious. Her performance is abysmal and getting worse.

I mean, "Putin rears his head..."?

Steady as She Goes

I've always felt that the election would come down to the issues, no matter how hard the McCain camp pressed otherwise. Of course, not owning a crystal ball, I did not foresee this financial crisis and it's impact on the election. Obama continues to show a steady hand, a firm grasp of the situation, and if he's a little light on details, it works in his favor because he leaves himself room to negotiate in a bipartisan manner. All this without alienating the other side, or losing the confidence of the John Q. Public.

Bad Form

I think what we are seeing is a first-class opportunist. This whole gambit just reeks of hidden agendas and ulterior motives. There are so many sub-plots to this that it is almost scary to consider. I'm tired, it's late, but here are a few random thoughts:

1. McCain needs to get the credit for a Wall Street "rescue." If he can't do that, he needs to sabotage an agreement so that he can blame Bush, Democrats, and by extension, Obama.
2. His grandstanding today, while Obama was working with him quietly in the background, suggests McCain is gaming his position on the bailout.
3. McCain continues to draw attention to himself with these bizarre maneuvers. I warned about his gambling addiction and that we were probably going to see more of his quirky behavior.
4. Postponing the debate on Friday is simply subterfuge for postponing the VP debate. Unless Palin's performance in the two softball interviews are ambushes in waiting, the McCain camp must be petrified about her readiness for next week. There will not be a VP debate next week. Take it to the bank. They cannot allow it.
5. Attention has been shifted from McCain's lobbyist problem (Rick Davis - Fannie and Freddie), and the campaign is getting tons of free face time.

Maybe I'm all wet. Maybe I'm just tired. Or maybe, like many others, I'm suffering from McCain Political Stunt Fatigue. Only time will tell.

I can't wait for November and this surreal election to be over.

Suspending Belief

This is almost unbelievable. McCain is suspending his campaign - whatever the hell that means - and is calling on Obama to do the same.

My first reaction is that McCain is near panic. This is another in a long line of knee-jerk, over reactions. He certainly loves postponing and cancelling.

This is not putting country first. This is grandstanding at a disgusting level. Our political process should push forward...that is the constant in our system. What's next, McCain calling for the election to be postponed?

Big Questions Remain

There are three issues related to the Wall Street bailout that I simply can't get my arms around.

First, I am completely stunned by the administration's response to conditions being tied to the bailout plan. Paulson is basically claiming that the institutions will not participate if there are conditions to the bailout money. How does this make any sense? If the fate of the planet rides on this initiative, why would firms hesitate because their taxpayer "banker" wants some security? I don't buy it.

Second, why is Paulson not explaining the theory of this bailout. Thus far, he refuses to explain any details on what is to be purchased and at what rate. Given the incurious and incompetent record of this administration, what buffoon would give them a key to a public restroom at this point, let alone our national treasury? Paulson and Bernake have both said there are no guarantees that this will work. I need some transparency here. Big time.

Finally, why all $700b at once? Paulson has indicated that he will spend about $50b a month. With conditions, and I mean strict conditions, including transparency, oversight, and review, let's give a little and see what they do with it. Doesn't that make some sense rather than dumping a one trillion dollar bill into a sink hole?

This whole thing is unsettling and more information is required. No more unlimited authorizations for anyone.

Even tho we aint got money

This Wall Street bailout is starting to smell rotten to me. Paulson and Bernake are running around like Chicken Little, screaming that the economic sky is falling. As Congress stiffens in resistance, offering conditions on such a plan, the administration is saying that any conditions will negatively impact the potential success of such a program.

Let's review - it's always helpful.
1. The Bush administration, along with a Republican Congress, loosen regulations and essentially eliminate oversight of the banking and finance industry.
2. Bush promotes the "Ownership" society, and Alan Greenspan opens the credit faucet beyond the danger zone.
3. Wall Street ingeniously designs packages that create trillions in wealth for their firms. Executives make off with obscene bonuses and severance deals.
4. The house of cards that was built with this foundation begins to teeter.
5. Feds rush in and bail out Bears-Stearns, Freddie and Fannie. They let Lehman collapse and then decide it was a bad idea and bail out AIG.
6. Paulson tells us everything is under control after bailing out AIG, and then turns around next day, and, in secret meetings, tells Congress we're facing a global financial wipeout.
7. The administration, telling us they've been working on this contingency plan for months, offers a three-page plan with no review, oversight, or taxpayer protections. We're told if we do not pass this clean bill, the economy will collapse.

Ok. I know there are lots of holes, but this is the general picture. If the situation is so dire, why would these institutions choose to fail rather than accept some strict terms on a bailout? If this money was being provided by capital venturists, you can bet there would be a bigger piece of the pie than what Congress is asking for. Why is the administration balking at conditions? Why are we not hearing from captains of the finance industry explain why some of these pre-conditions are worse than failing? Remember, these CEOs have a fiduciary responsibility to the shareholders, they are personally responsible.

There's something rotten in DC. But we already knew that.

I Know You Are...

But what am I? Also known as: "Nana Nana Poo Poo."

You gotta be f&^%&$g kidding me. McCain is out there shouting about a 10 minute telephone conversation Obama had with a VP of Fannie Mae while his campaign manager was receiving $350k a year from Fannie and Freddie.

You just can't make this stuff up.

Shock Doctrine

I read Naomi Klein's book this past summer - The Shock Doctrine. I am petrified of what's next in our economy.

The latest bailout proposed by Bush is a bomb waiting to go off next year. Our country will be awash in so much debt that the "free marketers" will be screaming to curtail entitlement programs. This is the gambit to privatize social security, education, and end discussions on health care reform.

We cannot allow this maneuver to be successful. Write your congressperson and senators. Write letters to the editor. Talk to your neighbors, friends and family.

Do something. Now.

The Change Candidate

Little did we know that when McCain says he's the candidate of change, what he really means is that he'll change his mind every day.

Free advice to the geniuses over at McCain headquarters: Picking a new position each day does not instill confidence in the voters.

Senor Moment

While being interviewed by Spanish television, McCain was thoroughly confused by questions about the Spanish Prime Minister. Unable to maintain his bearings, McCain slipped into campaign jargon about Latin American leaders. Apparently, this has caused a huge outcry in Spain (how many electoral votes to they have?).

I've been fairly impressed by McCain's stamina to date. For a 72 year old, he seems to maintain some energy on the campaign trail. I do wonder, though, why he has been less available to the media, and will be watching for mental acuity lapses as the debates begin.

McCain's tendency to shoot from the hip frequently lands him trouble. His ability to stay on message these past six or seven weeks has been pretty good - but all bets are off if he get's pressed during the debates.

Trends

As I thought last week, the polls are beginning to show movement towards Obama. This probably has much to do with the economic woes we are getting shoved down our throats during the evening news and our local papers. People are beginning to pay attention and when they hear John McHoover say the economy is fundamentally sound, they wonder what planet he's from.

As the obsession with the Palin pick subsides (and the sad reality of the poor choice sets in) and the election becomes Obama vs McCain, I expect Obama's lead to grow. McCain looks rather lost in a crisis - stumbling for the right thing to say, and not able to think on his feet quickly. Obama has more of an analytical mind and is able to think more broadly. This manifests itself in Obama's ability to connect the dots for folks. Granted, I'd like to see him start doing this with fewer words.

Obama will hit his stride when he begins to break the issues down into comprehensible chunks. Not for graduate-level consumption at universities, but for common people. One of my favorite campaigning stories is about Adelai Stevenson. After giving a speech at Princeton, a very enthusiastic student shook Stevenson's hand, telling him he loved the speech and that "Stevenson had the support of every thinking man in America." To which Stevenson quickly replied, "That's not enough, son. I need a majority!"

As true today as it ever was.

I read the news today, oh boy...

I had to shut the news off last night. How depressing...I can't shake the feeling that the appocolypse is upon us. Bank failures, Wall Street greed, and McCain running around telling everyone that the fundamentals of the economy is strong. Wow.

The bailouts are interesting to me because the government has done little to treat the root of the problem - namely the bad loans that are out there. Americans are being foreclosed on (almost 10k a day) and defaulting on loans. The exposure is still being understated by most banks and financial institutions. Some estimate that the US taxpayer is already into this for $1.5 trillion. Yeah, I bet you had to swallow hard to say that number.

It is so obvious to me that we need a complex, multi-level thinker as the leader of our country. Comparing Obama to the Republican idiot running for president is almost unfair. McCain is simply not a smart man - his choice of Palin for political reasons rather than "putting the country first" is prima facie evidence of his shallow thinking process.

I'm counting on the smart people of our country to recognize the right leader for our times. I hope I'm right.

Palin Interview

I've seen only clips of ABC's interview with Governor Palin, but I simply refuse to believe that the American public would elect such a novice. She obviously is bright and has political talent, but she is not up to the task of being VP of the US.

It is also disappointing that no matter how many lies that the McCain/Palin camp are being caught in, it is just not swaying public opinion. How is this so? I do want to understand, but can't get my arms around it.

Someone please enlighten me.

Truth Speak

Why is it that our Hollywood celebrity types speak truth to power better than our media? How is it possible that wankers like Broder and Cohen have jobs when they can't see the danger in this?




What's the difference between mooseshit and bullshit?

Lipstick.

News Flash

John McCain wants to be president.

He's 72 fricken years old! This is his last opportunity. He will do anything, say anything, be anything that will get him elected.

This is not about party politics. It's not about policy. It's about one man's personal ambition to be president. John McCain. The sooner everyone understands this, the sooner we can keep the election about the issues.

That is all.

Hand wringing

The blogosphere is all atwitter with hand-wringing extraordinaire. McCain and Obama are tied, with McCain slightly ahead in some of the daily tracking polls.

Trust me when I say this is nothing unexpected. Both the hand-wringing and the close race. The Republicans have their best situational hitter up. McCain does not represent the party brand. For better or worse, he has crafted himself as a maverick, one who stands against party on principle. This doesn't have to be true to be believed. Thus, McCain can seem like he's a good choice to many people who wouldn't ordinarily vote for a Republican for president this year.

On the other side, let's face it, Obama wouldn't have a chance against McCain if the economy were strong, or if the situation in Iraq wasn't such a mess. The bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. Meaning, Obama's unknowns would be too much to overcome against someone of McCain's stature, all things being equal. I say this as a very strong Obama supporter.

Convention bounces are just that. Bounces. This one will fade, and the hard work of daily campaigning will continue for both these candidates. At some point in the next 3 to 6 weeks, we will start seeing polling trends for one of them. I'm convinced it will be Obama, because McCain has given up on the experience argument and the surge argument and is willing to fight Obama over change. It's not good ground for him because if you want to talk change, you have to talk policy, and the reality is that McCain has none. Simply platitudes.

Also remember, in today's political environment, a 4% popular vote win is a landslide.

NH Donnybrook

The Republican primary is turning into a real spit fest. It's almost fun to watch, and I don't see how fences are mended after the haymakers Stephens and Bradley are throwing at each other. Although, give credit to our Republican friends, they do know how to get in line.

In related news, we learned that Republican primary candidate John Stephens doesn't wear lipstick.

"I don't wear lipstick," Stephen, a hockey dad, said at a debate Thursday, "but I am a pit bull when it comes to wasteful spending." referencing vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin's convention quip about the difference between a hockey mom and a pit bull.

Picnic in the rain

It's raining here in New England. Steady, light rain that rustles through the leaves. These are usually great days for sleeping in, if you didn't go to bed a 9:30 pm! So, up with the birds, I was.

There's a county Democratic picnic this afternoon, couple of towns over. It's a little more important to attend because it's raining, I think. I'm not sure who the speakers are, but we're sure to see Jeanne Shaheen, Carol Shea-Porter, and maybe Lynch.

I would add that Lynch disappoints me sometimes. He has a good reputation in our state as a steady steward of government. He is popular. But he rarely helps with other Dem campaigns. The argument is always, "he wants his coattails to do the work." He's a two-term governor...time to tuck the shirts in and get to work.

It's a little curious what these gatherings are about. I mock the Repubs for marching in lockstep with all their candidates, yet I'm about to do something similar. The concept of attaching myself to a political party is not comforting. I'd like to have more options, but simply do not.

Where's the umbrella?

John Bush

McCain's speech was pedestrian. His story, though always moving, has the same effect on me as watching a made-for-TEEVEE movie for the second time. Republicans surely are waking up this morning with the hangover of having a 72 year old man leading their ticket...

Eventually, this election will come down to Obama/McCain, standing next to each other, drawing contrasts with each other, and discussing the issues. The issues are too important to ignore, and the public and media will not allow it. McCain's strategy of running on "a composite image" of the candidates is mis-placed in today's media environment.

On a side note, it looks like Gov. Palin will be hiding in Alaska for a few days. No media appearances. I seriously doubt this will go over with the media, and it allows unanswered questions to fester for days. Press releases don't cut it.

Hockey Mom?

What, no NASCAR Mom available?

Are You Ready...

for some football.

Politics is important, but I think a segment of McCain's target audience will be glued to the Skins-Giants game tonight, particularly if it's a close game. Looks like McCain will be scheduled to speak at or near the conclusion of the game.

I'm rooting for an overtime thriller!

PpMA (Post-partisan My Ass)

I'm trying to remember the last time I voted for a Republican. I did in the 2000 primary - John McCain. I was already worried about Bush. Of course, there are lots of local, non-partisan races, so it may be that I have cast a vote here or there for a conservative.

At the same time, I don't feel partisan. The reality is, I probably am. I wonder if I would vote for a Democratic version of Palin? Be just as excited as the Republican base? I wasn't a Deaniac, although I truly appreciate how he has expanded the Democratic Party and process. I wasn't enamored with John Edwards and was slow to warm to Sen. Obama (always in the back of my mind; could this be really happening?) Of course, I always believed that HRC would have stirred the Republican base just with her name.

I'm not a single-issue voter. Could the Republicans nominate someone I might be interested in? I simply don't see it. By the same token, we can't be surprised when the Repub base despises our candidates. They would eviscerate FDR if he were to jump out of his grave and run again.

This is a partisan election. Get involved. Knock on doors, make phone calls, contribute. Register voters, give rides on election day, write letters to the editor. Democrats have a decided edge right now, but it is clear that the Republicans intend to swing the cultural sledgehammer through the coalition.

Take a load off

There's more to life than daily politics. Wood is stacked, yard is neat, and there's cold beer in the fridge.

Life is good. Warning; Foul Language

Hurricane Sarah

Interesting times indeed. Obama cancelled events for today to travel back to Chicago to monitor "hurricane activity."

There's no doubt that the Palin pick has generated chaos on the campaign trail. Most of the chaos has focused on the Republicans, but it must be having an impact on Obama as well. Here's what I think is happening:

Obama is getting mixed advise from staffers and advisers. The campaign is unsure how to proceed, thus requiring cabinet level discussions - either in person or by phone - to determine a short-term course of action. This is important because the situation must be handled carefully - any over-reach on the part of Democrats could backfire wildly. That's the problem with political opportunity - you always pay a price.

So, my guess is that the Obama campaign will reign in advisers and staffers today. No more comments forthcoming on Palin, except for Obama/Biden (hopefully, with less emphasis on Biden). They will choose a strategy that focuses on issues, and ask for surrogate help to demonstrate why Palin is professionally incompetent for the position of VP.

Polls are starting to show landslide and believe me, it won't be long before the downticket republican candidates start to panic. This has the makings of a not-so-slow motion train wreck. But, that's what mavericks do - win some, lose some. Easy come, easy go.

This storm is just beginning. As it gathers strength, Obama and team want to be monitoring the damage from afar.

She's Come Undone

I'm starting to feel sorry for Palin and her family. She seems like a good person, with a solid family...Being thrust onto the national stage before your time says more about the thrusters.

The rollout of bad news is simply stunning. Her family is under seige, and it will extend to friends of the kids like a small-town soap opera. There is some talk of her withdrawal - as usual it is couched the way most support is framed. How many big-league managers read about having ownership's support just before getting canned? It's a comical kiss-of-death to receive that support.

The Republicans must be in near panic mode. It should be shame. These are their chickens coming home to roost.

Come on, Lucky 7

I'm not an expert on gambling. My experiences with betting - mostly football, some baseball - have been really, really bad. I have had mixed luck with low-stakes poker, mostly playing for the camaraderie, sport, and entertainment. I have also spent more than I could afford at casinos, mostly blackjack tables.

Most of my bad experiences (read: losing enough to feel terrible about it) were the result of what some poker players call "Tilting". I'm not positive, but I think this is an old pinball game reference, where a player gets emotional and then too rough with the pinball machine. When on "Tilt", a gambler is emotionally involved with the game and is not engaging the intellectual component of the mind. The cash flies out much more quickly as the player is desperate to win back the lost dough.

Why do I mention any of this? It seems to me that we overlook McCain's gambling addiction at our peril. My sense is that we'll see more gambles, some doubling-down on Palin, or perhaps just gutter politics. I'm not really sure, and maybe I'm all wet. But I've been in gambling situations before, I've seen people step out of character, even for a moment, when they think they see their pot of goal right in front of them. Almost always it's a mirage.

Keep an eye on the McCain camp. Craps players always think they're about to get hot...they usually think this way right up until they run out of money.