The recent flap regarding John McCain’s ethics provides a huge opportunity for Obama. Remember, it was McCain who challenged Obama to stand by the “pledge” to receive public financing for the general election.
Through the dust up, we discover that McCain, if nothing else, games the system. He used eligibility for public financing to secure a campaign loan. He also used the public campaign finance system to waive the petition requirements in the Ohio Republican primary. Now, McCain wants to wiggle out of his public financing commitments and be able to rake in donations from his lobbyist friends. Nothing outlandish, but simply political expediency – and it stands in stark contrast with the self-proclaimed “Straight Talk Express.”
On the other side, Obama has nearly 1,000,000 donors. He has not accepted money from any PACs or lobbyists (unless they have donated as individuals). For the first time in my lifetime, Obama will enter the White House not owing anyone. I think this is why the Edwards endorsement is taking so long – I have the sense that he wants more from Obama than Obama is willing to give. Since Obama is dealing from a position of strength, he should not make promises that will be difficult to keep if elected.
Tuesday, February 26, 2008
Monday, February 25, 2008
Penn in Ohio
I'm sure the Obama camp knows more about this than I do, but why don't they make more of a case against Clinton regarding Mark Penn's company. As is well known on the internets, Penn's company has done quite a bit of anti-union work. He claims he has walled himself off of it, but he still profits from it.
It seems to me that this would be a pretty significant issue in Ohio where union busting and job losses have been devastating. Plus, it's the truth. Why does Clinton not distance herself from this guy? Why doesn't Obama go after them?
Questions, questions.
It seems to me that this would be a pretty significant issue in Ohio where union busting and job losses have been devastating. Plus, it's the truth. Why does Clinton not distance herself from this guy? Why doesn't Obama go after them?
Questions, questions.
Friday, February 22, 2008
Moving the goalposts
Just to be clear about the kumbaya moment last night. I think this is the best strategy for Clinton. Her campaign is clearly trying to show a vulnerable Hillary – witness the “Hillary, we got your back” signs at rallies. Her comments regarding the super delegates and the “we’ll be fine” moment are designed to blur the edges of a tough politician.
With this strategic shift, I’m also sensing tactical maneuvering from the Clinton camp. Bill mentioned earlier this week that if Hillary wins Texas and Ohio, he believes she’ll be the nominee. If she doesn’t win, he doesn’t think she can do it. The MSM echo chamber has been focused on the negative aspect of that statement, and Hillary has only said that Texas and Ohio are critical not must wins. I’d like to focus on the other half.
Essentially, what Bill did, was continue a narrative that began with James Carville. Just before the Wisconsin primary, Carville said that Hillary was poised to begin the greatest political comeback in history, by winning Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Bill is building upon this theme, suggesting that wins in these upcoming primaries will give the nomination to Hillary.
So, forget about the delegate count, forget about the previous primaries and caucuses, and forget about the popular vote. It all comes down to TX, OH, and PA. Brilliant.
With this strategic shift, I’m also sensing tactical maneuvering from the Clinton camp. Bill mentioned earlier this week that if Hillary wins Texas and Ohio, he believes she’ll be the nominee. If she doesn’t win, he doesn’t think she can do it. The MSM echo chamber has been focused on the negative aspect of that statement, and Hillary has only said that Texas and Ohio are critical not must wins. I’d like to focus on the other half.
Essentially, what Bill did, was continue a narrative that began with James Carville. Just before the Wisconsin primary, Carville said that Hillary was poised to begin the greatest political comeback in history, by winning Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Bill is building upon this theme, suggesting that wins in these upcoming primaries will give the nomination to Hillary.
So, forget about the delegate count, forget about the previous primaries and caucuses, and forget about the popular vote. It all comes down to TX, OH, and PA. Brilliant.
Democratic Debate, Texas Style
There really was no new information in the Democratic debate last evening. Both Clinton and Obama spoke fluently about policy and issues, showing a command of details that makes them both exceptional candidates. There were a few testy moments, and, of course, everyone will be talking about the “change you can Xerox” comment from Hillary. I could almost see her reaching out to pull the words back as she spoke them – she really needs to put a lid on Wolfson and Penn.
The other big moment that seems to be echoing is the kumbaya sentiments expressed by Clinton at the end of the debate. My sense watching this was relief. Taken in context with her statement that the super delegate issue would work itself out, this final statement signaled, at least initially to me, that Hillary is preparing to be magnanimous in defeat.
Clearly the attack mode is not resonating with Dem voters. Clinton tried to riff Obama with a remark about one of his surrogates not being able to identify any legislative accomplishments on national television. Obama remained calm and simply recited many of his good works, and said something to the effect that they shouldn’t be trying to tear each other down, but lifting the country up. An excellent moment for him, I thought.
So, basically a tie between two formidable and impressive candidates. Senator McCain has his work cut out for him.
The other big moment that seems to be echoing is the kumbaya sentiments expressed by Clinton at the end of the debate. My sense watching this was relief. Taken in context with her statement that the super delegate issue would work itself out, this final statement signaled, at least initially to me, that Hillary is preparing to be magnanimous in defeat.
Clearly the attack mode is not resonating with Dem voters. Clinton tried to riff Obama with a remark about one of his surrogates not being able to identify any legislative accomplishments on national television. Obama remained calm and simply recited many of his good works, and said something to the effect that they shouldn’t be trying to tear each other down, but lifting the country up. An excellent moment for him, I thought.
So, basically a tie between two formidable and impressive candidates. Senator McCain has his work cut out for him.
Thursday, February 21, 2008
It's the sex, stupid...
Unless the NYT backs up the initial story about le affaire McCain with some hard facts (pun intended) then I think I’ll not comment too much.
It’s probably fair to suggest that without any other info, this helps McCain, solidifying the conservative angst about MSM, and especially the commies at the Times. On the other hand, if more bombshells jump out of birthday cakes, McCain’s done. He doesn’t have the charm or support to beat back this story if it continues to break.
All in all, I’m delighted that this is taking up space in the MSM echo chamber. Can’t wait to hear Mathews slobbering all over himself tonight.
The icing on the cake is that this story acts like an etchasketch in that it erases almost every other non-story story that the Clinton camp has been raking up about Obama. I can just hear the Clinton brain trust pounding their collective fist on the Red Roof Inn table in Texas, damning McCain. There’s some irony in how this sex story is casting a shadow on the Clintons…
It’s probably fair to suggest that without any other info, this helps McCain, solidifying the conservative angst about MSM, and especially the commies at the Times. On the other hand, if more bombshells jump out of birthday cakes, McCain’s done. He doesn’t have the charm or support to beat back this story if it continues to break.
All in all, I’m delighted that this is taking up space in the MSM echo chamber. Can’t wait to hear Mathews slobbering all over himself tonight.
The icing on the cake is that this story acts like an etchasketch in that it erases almost every other non-story story that the Clinton camp has been raking up about Obama. I can just hear the Clinton brain trust pounding their collective fist on the Red Roof Inn table in Texas, damning McCain. There’s some irony in how this sex story is casting a shadow on the Clintons…
Wednesday, February 20, 2008
Happy trails
Good people, good candidates sometimes lose. The narrative in the Democratic primary is not yet complete, but only the epilogue remains. Here is where Hillary must be careful.
She must make a decision about whether she presses on with negative attacks, or begins to gracefully draw distinctions with Obama. The latter provides a future opening for magnanimous withdrawal from the primary and support for the Democratic nominee. Conversely, the former begins to paint Clinton in unflattering colors, risking not only the 2008 Presidential race, but also creating a rift in the Democratic Party.
It must be difficult for the Clintons. They have been good Democrats. Not great, but solid. I think what they failed to recognize can be summed up in the Ned Lamont senatorial contest against Leiberman in Connecticut. Bill and Hillary had an opportunity to campaign for Lamont against Leiberman, and did not. Perhaps they were helpful behind the scenes, I can’t pretend to know. But Lamont was a movement, a grassroots movement similar to the Obama phenomena. I think the Clintons (and the Dem Party establishment) failed to recognize the unrest in the party, and the degree to which change is desired.
Maybe it would not have been different if Hillary had actively campaigned for Lamont. I’m almost certain that Lamont would have still lost…but the greater point would have been made for Clinton. She would have supported grassroots movements, stood for changing the status quo, and would have become part of the movement. Instead, in my eyes, she’s viewed as part of the problem. Same old, same old.
There is a groundswell out in the American landscape. Most establishment Dems think they can ride it out…they’re wrong. Get on board or get swept aside.
She must make a decision about whether she presses on with negative attacks, or begins to gracefully draw distinctions with Obama. The latter provides a future opening for magnanimous withdrawal from the primary and support for the Democratic nominee. Conversely, the former begins to paint Clinton in unflattering colors, risking not only the 2008 Presidential race, but also creating a rift in the Democratic Party.
It must be difficult for the Clintons. They have been good Democrats. Not great, but solid. I think what they failed to recognize can be summed up in the Ned Lamont senatorial contest against Leiberman in Connecticut. Bill and Hillary had an opportunity to campaign for Lamont against Leiberman, and did not. Perhaps they were helpful behind the scenes, I can’t pretend to know. But Lamont was a movement, a grassroots movement similar to the Obama phenomena. I think the Clintons (and the Dem Party establishment) failed to recognize the unrest in the party, and the degree to which change is desired.
Maybe it would not have been different if Hillary had actively campaigned for Lamont. I’m almost certain that Lamont would have still lost…but the greater point would have been made for Clinton. She would have supported grassroots movements, stood for changing the status quo, and would have become part of the movement. Instead, in my eyes, she’s viewed as part of the problem. Same old, same old.
There is a groundswell out in the American landscape. Most establishment Dems think they can ride it out…they’re wrong. Get on board or get swept aside.
Tuesday, February 19, 2008
Desperado....
Desperation is opportunity. When we talk of courage being borne of desperation, we are referring to an uncommon valor in the face of daunting circumstances. A person who exhibits courage under duress is one who stays true to his principles and values, displays grace and acceptance.
On the other hand, desperate times more often bring out the worst in people. Some crimes are committed by desperate people. Reckless behavior can be a symptom of desperate people. Resorting to desperate measures is often the last foothold of an otherwise rational person.
The Clinton camp is about to cross the threshold into desperation. They are grasping at every crevice, every perceived opening and trying to rip Obama apart. One can only guess the end game…
It is certain that the Democratic Party establishment has been sending signals to the Clintons that the will of the voting mass will not be overturned. Super delegates will not rule the day at the party convention. So why the vitriol and ad hoc attacks on Obama?
Is it too cynical to suggest that these attacks weaken Obama’s national image, thus creating an opening for continued Republican attack in the fall? A combination of a barrage of Republican attacks on nominee Obama, with a passive Clinton machine in 2008 gives Hillary one more chance. No?
On the other hand, desperate times more often bring out the worst in people. Some crimes are committed by desperate people. Reckless behavior can be a symptom of desperate people. Resorting to desperate measures is often the last foothold of an otherwise rational person.
The Clinton camp is about to cross the threshold into desperation. They are grasping at every crevice, every perceived opening and trying to rip Obama apart. One can only guess the end game…
It is certain that the Democratic Party establishment has been sending signals to the Clintons that the will of the voting mass will not be overturned. Super delegates will not rule the day at the party convention. So why the vitriol and ad hoc attacks on Obama?
Is it too cynical to suggest that these attacks weaken Obama’s national image, thus creating an opening for continued Republican attack in the fall? A combination of a barrage of Republican attacks on nominee Obama, with a passive Clinton machine in 2008 gives Hillary one more chance. No?
In for a nickel...
Caught Mathews this am talking about Obama’s flipping on public financing. Ouch. That really hurt. Not.
Does he or McCain really expect Obama to forfeit his huge money raising advantage? Of course, once he does so, the Republicans will establish hundreds of 527s to attack Obama and distort his record.
The problem with Republicans in 2008 is that we know how low they will sink to hold power. We know they will distort, invent, twist, and lie about any information that they think will help them.
For years, Dem candidates have been playing by the rules and getting street brawled by Rethuglicans. Let John McCain cry, let Mathews whine….use the money to make them both irrelevant.
Does he or McCain really expect Obama to forfeit his huge money raising advantage? Of course, once he does so, the Republicans will establish hundreds of 527s to attack Obama and distort his record.
The problem with Republicans in 2008 is that we know how low they will sink to hold power. We know they will distort, invent, twist, and lie about any information that they think will help them.
For years, Dem candidates have been playing by the rules and getting street brawled by Rethuglicans. Let John McCain cry, let Mathews whine….use the money to make them both irrelevant.
Tuesday, February 12, 2008
Everywhere a Sign
I distinctly remember that during the Democratic debates I marveled at HRC's ability to speak confidently about almost any issue. She brushed aside criticism, developed complete salient sentences regarding complex policy issues effortlessly. Her manner was easy, and with the exception of a misplaced laugh or two, she came across as almost friendly.
My have times changed. In the difficult days of her campaign, with Obama winning big at every turn, Clinton seems angry and dismissive. She has re-organized her campaign (fired her campaign manager) and has discounted not only Obama's wins, but the people who have voted for him. "They don't represent the electorate." she stated after being trounced in Maine.
This primary is teetering on getting ugly. A word of caution to Obama and his supporters: Keep your mouth shut about the Clintons, and keep working hard to get your message out. Any perceived slight at this point toward the Clintons may unleash the hounds. Ask David Shuster.
I find it hard to imagine Obama choosing this same course of action. I'm sure he is competitive, has an ego, and wants to win...he's a politician. But he's also different. He's a team player, he makes those around him better and he's better for it. Sure he speaks in broad philosophical rhetoric, but it speaks to people who want something better, who want change but don't want to run anyone over to get it. Obama may knock you down during the game, but his will also be the first extended to help you up.
My have times changed. In the difficult days of her campaign, with Obama winning big at every turn, Clinton seems angry and dismissive. She has re-organized her campaign (fired her campaign manager) and has discounted not only Obama's wins, but the people who have voted for him. "They don't represent the electorate." she stated after being trounced in Maine.
This primary is teetering on getting ugly. A word of caution to Obama and his supporters: Keep your mouth shut about the Clintons, and keep working hard to get your message out. Any perceived slight at this point toward the Clintons may unleash the hounds. Ask David Shuster.
I find it hard to imagine Obama choosing this same course of action. I'm sure he is competitive, has an ego, and wants to win...he's a politician. But he's also different. He's a team player, he makes those around him better and he's better for it. Sure he speaks in broad philosophical rhetoric, but it speaks to people who want something better, who want change but don't want to run anyone over to get it. Obama may knock you down during the game, but his will also be the first extended to help you up.
Friday, February 8, 2008
What's the end game?
The Democratic primary has proven to be a fascinating case-study. The rookie politician against the cagey veteran. Along the way, we've had racial, ethnic, and gender thrown into the mix, producing high-emotions and very divided results.
At this point, there is no practical way for either Obama or Clinton to earn the pledged delegates needed for the nomination. Super delegates will decide the election. By all accounts, Obama will be poised to go into the convention with a slight lead in delegates and a more firm lead in states won. The popular vote will likely be pretty evenly split. Already, the Clinton machine is grinding in the background, creating noise about seating the banned Florida and Michigan delegates. What a nightmare this would be...with the potential to disenfranchise black voters across the country.
I don't see a way for Clinton to win this without going ugly and twisting arms. Obama's campaign is inspiring, has attracted legions of new and young voters, and has all the energy. Scenes of him bouncing down the steps at an airport compare very favorably with the low-energy pictures of Clinton after super Tuesday.
I don't envy Howard Dean. Along with other party stalwarts, he'll be mediating/negotiating this mess sometime in May. The Dems can't afford for this to carry on into and past May.
At this point, there is no practical way for either Obama or Clinton to earn the pledged delegates needed for the nomination. Super delegates will decide the election. By all accounts, Obama will be poised to go into the convention with a slight lead in delegates and a more firm lead in states won. The popular vote will likely be pretty evenly split. Already, the Clinton machine is grinding in the background, creating noise about seating the banned Florida and Michigan delegates. What a nightmare this would be...with the potential to disenfranchise black voters across the country.
I don't see a way for Clinton to win this without going ugly and twisting arms. Obama's campaign is inspiring, has attracted legions of new and young voters, and has all the energy. Scenes of him bouncing down the steps at an airport compare very favorably with the low-energy pictures of Clinton after super Tuesday.
I don't envy Howard Dean. Along with other party stalwarts, he'll be mediating/negotiating this mess sometime in May. The Dems can't afford for this to carry on into and past May.
Thursday, February 7, 2008
Head in the sand
I'm not a real estate expert by any means, but my reading of the market is that, on the whole, we're still in decline. Interesting read in the Fosters.com about the Seacoast Board of Realators holding a "State of the Seacoast Market" presentation.
Essentially, the presentation claims that the housing market in the seacoast (NH) is still healthy and strong, and that the realators remain "cautiously optimistic." I think they should rethink their marketing materials. Key graf buried in the last paragraph:
I don't have any empirical evidence but my feeling is things are going to get worse before they get better in the housing market.
Essentially, the presentation claims that the housing market in the seacoast (NH) is still healthy and strong, and that the realators remain "cautiously optimistic." I think they should rethink their marketing materials. Key graf buried in the last paragraph:
"Dennis Delay, deputy director of the New Hampshire Center
for Public Policy Studies, estimated that home prices will continue to drop
another 15 percent while the median price of rent will increase 15 percent
between now and 2011 in the Portsmouth area. Delay based his forecast on a
1990-2003 average of both values."
I don't have any empirical evidence but my feeling is things are going to get worse before they get better in the housing market.
Wednesday, February 6, 2008
Clear as Mud
According to the WP, Clinton won 8 states and 540 delegates yesterday, and Obama won 13 states and 539 delegates. Overall, Clinton has a narrow edge in delegates, leading Obama 803 - 742.
These are two remarkable candidates fighting for the preeminent leadership position in the world. It is easy to see how Democrats are evenly divided between these highly qualified people. That said, I think the momentum is swinging in Obama’s direction. He is handily winning the fundraising battle, and drawing extraordinarily large crowds – two very important public relation issues.
The next few primary states bode well for Obama as they play into his strengths. He survived Hilary’s institutional advantages on Super Tuesday and can now focus on a few states at a time. This means that he can flood television markets with his cash-on-hand, and make rock-star like appearances.
Of course, it could also be that I have my head up my ass. We’ll see.
UPDATE: NBC News now projects Obama to win the delegate count from Super Tuesday - 847 to 834. Not likely to put Clinton on her heels, but will definately throw her off-balance.
These are two remarkable candidates fighting for the preeminent leadership position in the world. It is easy to see how Democrats are evenly divided between these highly qualified people. That said, I think the momentum is swinging in Obama’s direction. He is handily winning the fundraising battle, and drawing extraordinarily large crowds – two very important public relation issues.
The next few primary states bode well for Obama as they play into his strengths. He survived Hilary’s institutional advantages on Super Tuesday and can now focus on a few states at a time. This means that he can flood television markets with his cash-on-hand, and make rock-star like appearances.
Of course, it could also be that I have my head up my ass. We’ll see.
UPDATE: NBC News now projects Obama to win the delegate count from Super Tuesday - 847 to 834. Not likely to put Clinton on her heels, but will definately throw her off-balance.
My nephew's spelling bee
Ok, not bad. A fifth grader making it through round one. Much tougher than it seems because of nerves and feeling like you don't belong up there with the 8th graders.
Go Cal.
Tuesday, February 5, 2008
Chain mail
My cousin keeps sending those idiotic chain emails. You know the ones - IMMIGRANTS ARE CHANGING THE AMERICAN WAY OF LIFE! ACT NOW! SEND THIS EMAIL TO EVERYONE YOU KNOW. Or, - JESUS LOVES YOU AND ONLY YOU. IF YOU FORWARD THIS EMAIL TO TEN PEOPLE WITHIN 38 SECONDS, WONDERS WILL BE BESTOWED UPON YOU ALL THE DAYS AFTER YOUR LIFE.
Cripes! This shit scares me...Please stop.
Incidentally, my cousin is on the verge of hitting the online jackpot. She is in the early stages of working with this family in Nigeria to transfer a fortune......:>)
Cripes! This shit scares me...Please stop.
Incidentally, my cousin is on the verge of hitting the online jackpot. She is in the early stages of working with this family in Nigeria to transfer a fortune......:>)
Just Stupid
Very funny thing. I asked my wife how any self-respecting person can vote for a Republican after the past 7 years. She simply shook her head and said, "I don't know...they're just stupid."
I laughed because it's true. If this had been a Gore administration, I either wouldn't vote or vote for something significantly different. Voting for more of the same IS STUPID.
Oy.
I laughed because it's true. If this had been a Gore administration, I either wouldn't vote or vote for something significantly different. Voting for more of the same IS STUPID.
Oy.
Monday, February 4, 2008
Super Tuesday
It's not looking like Super Tuesday will settle the race on the Democratic side. The polls are tightening...if we can believe polls. Best guess is that Clinton will have a 75 delegate lead on Obama at the end of the day. It could be as high as 150 - many states have early voting, which took place when Clinton had a huge lead.
The only poll that counts is your vote. So do so.
We'll count 'em on Tuesday night.
The only poll that counts is your vote. So do so.
We'll count 'em on Tuesday night.
Un-Patriotic
I don't plan to write too much about the Superbowl. I'm disappointed that the Pats lost to the Giants, but the Giants are a great story. They beat very good teams on the road to win the championship...it's well-deserved.
It was almost divine intervention at the end of the game. Asante Samuel has an interception slip through his fingertips...this almost certainly would've iced the game. Then Manning, not known for being nimble, escapes the grasp of Jarvis Green and connects with David Tyree for a 30+ yard gain that has to go down as one of the greatest SuperBowl catches. Tyree actually pinned the football to his helmet and maintained control as he was hit. It was an amazing athletic feat...even this Patriot fan applauded.
Anyway, kudos to the Giants. Pats had a great year and will have to move on from this game. I would'nt be surprised to see a hangover next year and a rough start to the season. You have to wonder if Belichick did them any favors pushing as hard as he did all year....
It was almost divine intervention at the end of the game. Asante Samuel has an interception slip through his fingertips...this almost certainly would've iced the game. Then Manning, not known for being nimble, escapes the grasp of Jarvis Green and connects with David Tyree for a 30+ yard gain that has to go down as one of the greatest SuperBowl catches. Tyree actually pinned the football to his helmet and maintained control as he was hit. It was an amazing athletic feat...even this Patriot fan applauded.
Anyway, kudos to the Giants. Pats had a great year and will have to move on from this game. I would'nt be surprised to see a hangover next year and a rough start to the season. You have to wonder if Belichick did them any favors pushing as hard as he did all year....
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