I watched the debate with about 20 hard-core Dems last night who were revved up when Biden was deftly attacking McCain. Good stuff. We had a min-discussion of our own about Palin's use of the word "also."
My humble opinion is that the word is a verbal crutch for her. "Also" in the context that Palin uses it, reflects her intellectual incapacity to relate the initial verbal argument to the argument for which "also" refers.
Others thought it sounded like a tick, something she is saying as talking points come to her at the last minute.
One thing we all agreed on. Never had we heard the word so mis-used by anyone under any circumstances. It was awful.
Showing posts with label Debate. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Debate. Show all posts
Friday, October 3, 2008
Post Debate
My initial reaction last night was that, politically speaking, both candidates did what they needed to do. Palin, speaking in gibberish/talking points, was able to finish the debate without vomiting on the stage. Biden, avoided condescension and mockery, sounded knowledgeable and surprisingly salient. I admit to being somewhat surprised by Biden's shift to attack McCain mode about 1/3 of the way in.
So, politically, this was a draw. Technically, a Biden trouncing of Palin. In the final analysis, this debate will not matter, which is not good for McCain's chances.
The House is debating the Senate "Rescue" bill. Probably won't be much debate coverage on TeeVee.
So, politically, this was a draw. Technically, a Biden trouncing of Palin. In the final analysis, this debate will not matter, which is not good for McCain's chances.
The House is debating the Senate "Rescue" bill. Probably won't be much debate coverage on TeeVee.
Thursday, October 2, 2008
Handicapping Tonight
I don't expect much tonight. The format works for Palin and Biden is an old pro.
For Palin
I expect that, freed from the follow-up questions to her non-answers, she will expound on her talking points. Some might come away saying she seemed almost credible. In previous debates, she has shown an ability to cross-over from tough question to a more comfortable talking point. Former AK Governor Tony Knowles pointedly tells how Palin was asked about health care in small communities, and turned it into a talking point about revenues and budgets.
Palin will also attack. It seems that she enjoys the competitive aspect of the attack message, and I admire her ability to do it in a very folksy manner. She will probably use every opportunity she has to paint Obama/Biden as out of touch senators compared to the change that she and McCain will bring to Washington. They probably expect Biden to try to ignore her, so look for Palin to launch attacks against Biden in an attempt to get him to engage her in an ad hoc and unprepared manner.
Finally, I think Palin will shore up some weakening conservative infrastructure tonight. In fact, as I write this, I think this will be her most important task. For the most part, she has lost the intellectual conservatives and I don't think she gets them back. But she can plug the hole with a credible performance - meaning no Couric/Gibson interview type gaffes - and provide a little red meat to her keyboarding and airwave supporters. This is a pretty low bar to hurdle and I expect her to do well.
For Biden
Not too much here either. The best thing Biden can do, in my mind, is look presidential. That alone, as he stands on stage with Gov Palin, is worth more than any attack he can levy on either Palin or McCain. Be a man of few, strong words, and re-affirm what the Obama/Biden ticket means for average Americans.
Biden needs to talk his working-class language. Whether that is loaded with Catholic code words or not does not matter. His mission tonight is not to attack, even when engaged, but to stay on message. If we see Biden stray from message discipline tonight, it could be a problem.
Biden must be planning to ignore Palin. He must know that they know this and are creating ways for her to engage him on a personal level. He will need to control his temper and moderate his tone. Passion is good when promoting what you stand for, bad when defending your positions.
My final take: Draw. Both candidates will do what they need to do. Advantage: Obama. McCain needs a game-changer, not a draw.
One other consideration. The House votes on the "Recovery" legislation tomorrow (a little disappointed to see that the Dems are going to play the Orwellian name game). If the debate goes horribly awry for Biden tonight (unlikely), or if Palin performs much better than expected (more likely given the low ceiling of expectations), look for a little drama in the House as the Democrats flash something shiny in front of the media to distract them from the debate.
For Palin
I expect that, freed from the follow-up questions to her non-answers, she will expound on her talking points. Some might come away saying she seemed almost credible. In previous debates, she has shown an ability to cross-over from tough question to a more comfortable talking point. Former AK Governor Tony Knowles pointedly tells how Palin was asked about health care in small communities, and turned it into a talking point about revenues and budgets.
Palin will also attack. It seems that she enjoys the competitive aspect of the attack message, and I admire her ability to do it in a very folksy manner. She will probably use every opportunity she has to paint Obama/Biden as out of touch senators compared to the change that she and McCain will bring to Washington. They probably expect Biden to try to ignore her, so look for Palin to launch attacks against Biden in an attempt to get him to engage her in an ad hoc and unprepared manner.
Finally, I think Palin will shore up some weakening conservative infrastructure tonight. In fact, as I write this, I think this will be her most important task. For the most part, she has lost the intellectual conservatives and I don't think she gets them back. But she can plug the hole with a credible performance - meaning no Couric/Gibson interview type gaffes - and provide a little red meat to her keyboarding and airwave supporters. This is a pretty low bar to hurdle and I expect her to do well.
For Biden
Not too much here either. The best thing Biden can do, in my mind, is look presidential. That alone, as he stands on stage with Gov Palin, is worth more than any attack he can levy on either Palin or McCain. Be a man of few, strong words, and re-affirm what the Obama/Biden ticket means for average Americans.
Biden needs to talk his working-class language. Whether that is loaded with Catholic code words or not does not matter. His mission tonight is not to attack, even when engaged, but to stay on message. If we see Biden stray from message discipline tonight, it could be a problem.
Biden must be planning to ignore Palin. He must know that they know this and are creating ways for her to engage him on a personal level. He will need to control his temper and moderate his tone. Passion is good when promoting what you stand for, bad when defending your positions.
My final take: Draw. Both candidates will do what they need to do. Advantage: Obama. McCain needs a game-changer, not a draw.
One other consideration. The House votes on the "Recovery" legislation tomorrow (a little disappointed to see that the Dems are going to play the Orwellian name game). If the debate goes horribly awry for Biden tonight (unlikely), or if Palin performs much better than expected (more likely given the low ceiling of expectations), look for a little drama in the House as the Democrats flash something shiny in front of the media to distract them from the debate.
Wednesday, October 1, 2008
Flurry in Missouri
Well I did so well predicting the results of the Obama/McCain debate that I thought I'd give myself another go at it. Well, not right now, but soon. I fear that I am placing far too much emphasis on Palin's disastrous interviews on CBS to provide a credible analysis at this point.
Could it have been worse for McCain/Palin? I just can't envision it. Of course, I LMAO when I hear these unbelievable explanations for her poor performances:
She was over-prepared.
She's been over-handled.
Free Sarah.
It's a debate trap.
Let Sarah be Sarah.
She's managing expectations.
She's relating to the masses.
I'm sure I've missed some, but hooo, stop the madness. It is best to keep in mind Occam's Razor in times like these: The simplest explanation is the best explanation. She is wholly, inarguably, and incontestably unqualified.
All analysis must flow from this foundation.
Could it have been worse for McCain/Palin? I just can't envision it. Of course, I LMAO when I hear these unbelievable explanations for her poor performances:
She was over-prepared.
She's been over-handled.
Free Sarah.
It's a debate trap.
Let Sarah be Sarah.
She's managing expectations.
She's relating to the masses.
I'm sure I've missed some, but hooo, stop the madness. It is best to keep in mind Occam's Razor in times like these: The simplest explanation is the best explanation. She is wholly, inarguably, and incontestably unqualified.
All analysis must flow from this foundation.
Friday, September 26, 2008
Debate pointers
When the circumstances get uncomfortable, some people tend to overreact. We've all had a co-worker we can relate this to. The person who takes everything personally, and turns minor social slights into third-stage showdowns. Backing away from these people can be dicey, especially when people are looking to you for leadership.
McCain has shown he is one of these hard to predict, erratic people. He has been a wind sock in a tornado. A dog chasing cars at the demolition derby. Simply out of control. He has no plan, chaos is his only ally at this point. I fully expect several moments tonight where McCain's erratic behavior puts Obama on the spot.
McCain is under enormous stress. His campaign is floundering, wildly throwing darts in every direction hoping to pin a donkey. His campaign strategy to date has been the surprise - guerrilla tactics if you will. The Swamp Fox (I think McCain might have served with Francis Marion - I'll have to check.). Expect McCain to continue this routine tonight. Anything less gives credence to the fact that Obama belongs on the stage with him...something McCain simply cannot accept.
The stress, lack of sleep, and let's not forget Palin's recent poor performances will be weighing heavily on McCain tonight. Thus far, the media, and the polls, have rewarded McCain for most of his antics...the latest bailout fiasco notwithstanding. He loves to gamble. Expect him to double-down in a reprehensible fashion tonight.
My feeling is that Obama must be prepared to fight back. This is not going to be won on points. Not by a long-shot.
McCain has shown he is one of these hard to predict, erratic people. He has been a wind sock in a tornado. A dog chasing cars at the demolition derby. Simply out of control. He has no plan, chaos is his only ally at this point. I fully expect several moments tonight where McCain's erratic behavior puts Obama on the spot.
McCain is under enormous stress. His campaign is floundering, wildly throwing darts in every direction hoping to pin a donkey. His campaign strategy to date has been the surprise - guerrilla tactics if you will. The Swamp Fox (I think McCain might have served with Francis Marion - I'll have to check.). Expect McCain to continue this routine tonight. Anything less gives credence to the fact that Obama belongs on the stage with him...something McCain simply cannot accept.
The stress, lack of sleep, and let's not forget Palin's recent poor performances will be weighing heavily on McCain tonight. Thus far, the media, and the polls, have rewarded McCain for most of his antics...the latest bailout fiasco notwithstanding. He loves to gamble. Expect him to double-down in a reprehensible fashion tonight.
My feeling is that Obama must be prepared to fight back. This is not going to be won on points. Not by a long-shot.
Republican Movement
to dump McCain.
Good lord, McCain has become completely unhinged. He has shifted his position like an organ grinder - not for bailouts, for bailouts, suspending campaigns, not suspending campaigns, won't debate, will debate...ayeyaya.
What we are witnessing is a train wreck in slow motion. McCain is the engineer. Upon seeing the upcoming cliff, McCain is pulling back hard on all levers and trying to stop or turn the train around. Nothing is working.
There isn't much left to do, and how McCain responds will speak volumes about him, as it did of the Clintons. When the fight was lost, the Clintons continued to hammer and punish Obama. They went racial - don't think for a moment that Bill's antics in South Carolina weren't intended for audiences in PA and Ohio - they went personal. It didn't work then, I feel more confident it won't work now. Obama and the Dems gave the Clintons a second chance - I am not enamored by the lukewarm support thus far.
Sadly, I expect McCain to unleash a fury of personal and ad hominem attacks on Obama tonight. McCain cannot afford a tie. He cannot afford to have Obama look strong and presidential. Obama must maintain his composure, parry McCain effectively, and take the fight to McCain at times, hoping to keep McCain on his heels.
There are ramped up expectations for tonight. Millions will tune in... Tonight's the night that makes me nervous.
Good lord, McCain has become completely unhinged. He has shifted his position like an organ grinder - not for bailouts, for bailouts, suspending campaigns, not suspending campaigns, won't debate, will debate...ayeyaya.
What we are witnessing is a train wreck in slow motion. McCain is the engineer. Upon seeing the upcoming cliff, McCain is pulling back hard on all levers and trying to stop or turn the train around. Nothing is working.
There isn't much left to do, and how McCain responds will speak volumes about him, as it did of the Clintons. When the fight was lost, the Clintons continued to hammer and punish Obama. They went racial - don't think for a moment that Bill's antics in South Carolina weren't intended for audiences in PA and Ohio - they went personal. It didn't work then, I feel more confident it won't work now. Obama and the Dems gave the Clintons a second chance - I am not enamored by the lukewarm support thus far.
Sadly, I expect McCain to unleash a fury of personal and ad hominem attacks on Obama tonight. McCain cannot afford a tie. He cannot afford to have Obama look strong and presidential. Obama must maintain his composure, parry McCain effectively, and take the fight to McCain at times, hoping to keep McCain on his heels.
There are ramped up expectations for tonight. Millions will tune in... Tonight's the night that makes me nervous.
Friday, February 22, 2008
Democratic Debate, Texas Style
There really was no new information in the Democratic debate last evening. Both Clinton and Obama spoke fluently about policy and issues, showing a command of details that makes them both exceptional candidates. There were a few testy moments, and, of course, everyone will be talking about the “change you can Xerox” comment from Hillary. I could almost see her reaching out to pull the words back as she spoke them – she really needs to put a lid on Wolfson and Penn.
The other big moment that seems to be echoing is the kumbaya sentiments expressed by Clinton at the end of the debate. My sense watching this was relief. Taken in context with her statement that the super delegate issue would work itself out, this final statement signaled, at least initially to me, that Hillary is preparing to be magnanimous in defeat.
Clearly the attack mode is not resonating with Dem voters. Clinton tried to riff Obama with a remark about one of his surrogates not being able to identify any legislative accomplishments on national television. Obama remained calm and simply recited many of his good works, and said something to the effect that they shouldn’t be trying to tear each other down, but lifting the country up. An excellent moment for him, I thought.
So, basically a tie between two formidable and impressive candidates. Senator McCain has his work cut out for him.
The other big moment that seems to be echoing is the kumbaya sentiments expressed by Clinton at the end of the debate. My sense watching this was relief. Taken in context with her statement that the super delegate issue would work itself out, this final statement signaled, at least initially to me, that Hillary is preparing to be magnanimous in defeat.
Clearly the attack mode is not resonating with Dem voters. Clinton tried to riff Obama with a remark about one of his surrogates not being able to identify any legislative accomplishments on national television. Obama remained calm and simply recited many of his good works, and said something to the effect that they shouldn’t be trying to tear each other down, but lifting the country up. An excellent moment for him, I thought.
So, basically a tie between two formidable and impressive candidates. Senator McCain has his work cut out for him.
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