I feel compelled to weigh in on the Obama infomercial tonight. What will it be?
My sense is that Obama will re-assure voters about who he is. McCain's been slinging some crap for a couple weeks, and I think Obama will re-affirm his positions on tax policy, health insurance, energy policy, and foreign policy. The big ones.
Now, 1/2 hour is not a lot of time so expectations should be ratcheted down. It would be terrific if Obama had a specialist on to sell these Obama programs. Would it be effective for Warren Buffet to make a 5 minute appearance and sell the Obama tax/economic program? Colin Powell selling the foreign policy?
Does this make sense?
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
What's Going On?
McCain's Truman analogies are enough to make me gag. As McCain describes it, the polls are all wrong, and like Harry, his comeback will be the stuff of legend. I suppose when you trail in the polls as McCain does, you need to do some serious morale boosting to keep the campaign going. Who wants to vote for a loser, let alone work for one? McCain must maintain his fictional reading to keep everyone from jumping ship, and lowering turnout.
That said, his use of Truman is offensive to me. Not that I'm a huge Truman fan, mind you - Hiroshima and Nagasaki are the first things that pop in mind when I hear his name - but we'll save that argument for another day. The problem I have is that Truman was a populist, a common man for the common good. In every conceivable way, Truman is the antithesis of McCain.
Truman supported civil rights and a national health care system. Compare that to McCain's complicity in the fear mongering and creating racial tensions. If nothing else, his silence is deafening. McCain deserves everything his poorly run campaign has coming to them. So pay no attention to the man behind the curtain this week. McCain is simply going through the motions trying to stop the train wreck.
Look for for all remaining passengers to get off at the next available stop.
That said, his use of Truman is offensive to me. Not that I'm a huge Truman fan, mind you - Hiroshima and Nagasaki are the first things that pop in mind when I hear his name - but we'll save that argument for another day. The problem I have is that Truman was a populist, a common man for the common good. In every conceivable way, Truman is the antithesis of McCain.
Truman supported civil rights and a national health care system. Compare that to McCain's complicity in the fear mongering and creating racial tensions. If nothing else, his silence is deafening. McCain deserves everything his poorly run campaign has coming to them. So pay no attention to the man behind the curtain this week. McCain is simply going through the motions trying to stop the train wreck.
Look for for all remaining passengers to get off at the next available stop.
Bright, Bright,
Sunshiney Day!
Man it was cold this morning. 34 degrees and windyyyyy. Brrrrrr.
Yet we still had 8 at our viz in our rural, small NH town! We held signs and received cheers from 7 am to 9 am. Our GOTV efforts are in full force - we have canvasses and visibilities scheduled right through election day.
Last night, in a driving rain storm, we turned out 35 volunteers to help plan our GOTV! I am so jazzed! (you know I'm jazzed when I use multiple exclamation marks in one paragraph.)
Another viz scheduled for me at 4 pm. What are you doing?
Man it was cold this morning. 34 degrees and windyyyyy. Brrrrrr.
Yet we still had 8 at our viz in our rural, small NH town! We held signs and received cheers from 7 am to 9 am. Our GOTV efforts are in full force - we have canvasses and visibilities scheduled right through election day.
Last night, in a driving rain storm, we turned out 35 volunteers to help plan our GOTV! I am so jazzed! (you know I'm jazzed when I use multiple exclamation marks in one paragraph.)
Another viz scheduled for me at 4 pm. What are you doing?
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
Race for the White House
What is the state of race in the US?
I live a fairly isolated life here in rural NH. We don't have to work at race relations, because, quite frankly, we don't have any diversity to relate to. It's easy for people like me to underestimate the impact of race in areas of the country where race is a factor.
I remember talking to an in-law a few years ago. This particular person grew up in an integrated city in New England, and rationalized a racist perspective on isolated personal experiences. Knowing this person as I do, I'm fairly confident in believing that his distrust and low opinion of minorities is reciprocated in-kind. These types of beliefs are difficult to camouflage, and tend to be reinforcing.
The final results on November 4 will be instructive. My best guess, and what I truly want to believe, is that the vast majority of Americans will vote for who they think can best guide our country during these difficult times. I understand that there is a small segment of our population that will choose a candidate based on skin color alone, but I am resolved to believe it is, indeed, a small segment.
I live a fairly isolated life here in rural NH. We don't have to work at race relations, because, quite frankly, we don't have any diversity to relate to. It's easy for people like me to underestimate the impact of race in areas of the country where race is a factor.
I remember talking to an in-law a few years ago. This particular person grew up in an integrated city in New England, and rationalized a racist perspective on isolated personal experiences. Knowing this person as I do, I'm fairly confident in believing that his distrust and low opinion of minorities is reciprocated in-kind. These types of beliefs are difficult to camouflage, and tend to be reinforcing.
The final results on November 4 will be instructive. My best guess, and what I truly want to believe, is that the vast majority of Americans will vote for who they think can best guide our country during these difficult times. I understand that there is a small segment of our population that will choose a candidate based on skin color alone, but I am resolved to believe it is, indeed, a small segment.
Say Goodbye
Watching McCain flail around is somewhat sad, although tempered by a healthy resentment of Republican policies. I think when historians look back on this era, they will write admiringly of the hoodwink job that the Republicans were able to pull on the American public.
You simply can't make me believe that there are 50 million Americans who have benefited from Bush/Frist/Delay policies during the past eight years. Yet, that's how many people will vote for a continuation of these policies. If not more.
You simply can't make me believe that there are 50 million Americans who have benefited from Bush/Frist/Delay policies during the past eight years. Yet, that's how many people will vote for a continuation of these policies. If not more.
Monday, October 20, 2008
Friday, October 3, 2008
Debate II, also
I watched the debate with about 20 hard-core Dems last night who were revved up when Biden was deftly attacking McCain. Good stuff. We had a min-discussion of our own about Palin's use of the word "also."
My humble opinion is that the word is a verbal crutch for her. "Also" in the context that Palin uses it, reflects her intellectual incapacity to relate the initial verbal argument to the argument for which "also" refers.
Others thought it sounded like a tick, something she is saying as talking points come to her at the last minute.
One thing we all agreed on. Never had we heard the word so mis-used by anyone under any circumstances. It was awful.
My humble opinion is that the word is a verbal crutch for her. "Also" in the context that Palin uses it, reflects her intellectual incapacity to relate the initial verbal argument to the argument for which "also" refers.
Others thought it sounded like a tick, something she is saying as talking points come to her at the last minute.
One thing we all agreed on. Never had we heard the word so mis-used by anyone under any circumstances. It was awful.
Post Debate
My initial reaction last night was that, politically speaking, both candidates did what they needed to do. Palin, speaking in gibberish/talking points, was able to finish the debate without vomiting on the stage. Biden, avoided condescension and mockery, sounded knowledgeable and surprisingly salient. I admit to being somewhat surprised by Biden's shift to attack McCain mode about 1/3 of the way in.
So, politically, this was a draw. Technically, a Biden trouncing of Palin. In the final analysis, this debate will not matter, which is not good for McCain's chances.
The House is debating the Senate "Rescue" bill. Probably won't be much debate coverage on TeeVee.
So, politically, this was a draw. Technically, a Biden trouncing of Palin. In the final analysis, this debate will not matter, which is not good for McCain's chances.
The House is debating the Senate "Rescue" bill. Probably won't be much debate coverage on TeeVee.
Thursday, October 2, 2008
Handicapping Tonight
I don't expect much tonight. The format works for Palin and Biden is an old pro.
For Palin
I expect that, freed from the follow-up questions to her non-answers, she will expound on her talking points. Some might come away saying she seemed almost credible. In previous debates, she has shown an ability to cross-over from tough question to a more comfortable talking point. Former AK Governor Tony Knowles pointedly tells how Palin was asked about health care in small communities, and turned it into a talking point about revenues and budgets.
Palin will also attack. It seems that she enjoys the competitive aspect of the attack message, and I admire her ability to do it in a very folksy manner. She will probably use every opportunity she has to paint Obama/Biden as out of touch senators compared to the change that she and McCain will bring to Washington. They probably expect Biden to try to ignore her, so look for Palin to launch attacks against Biden in an attempt to get him to engage her in an ad hoc and unprepared manner.
Finally, I think Palin will shore up some weakening conservative infrastructure tonight. In fact, as I write this, I think this will be her most important task. For the most part, she has lost the intellectual conservatives and I don't think she gets them back. But she can plug the hole with a credible performance - meaning no Couric/Gibson interview type gaffes - and provide a little red meat to her keyboarding and airwave supporters. This is a pretty low bar to hurdle and I expect her to do well.
For Biden
Not too much here either. The best thing Biden can do, in my mind, is look presidential. That alone, as he stands on stage with Gov Palin, is worth more than any attack he can levy on either Palin or McCain. Be a man of few, strong words, and re-affirm what the Obama/Biden ticket means for average Americans.
Biden needs to talk his working-class language. Whether that is loaded with Catholic code words or not does not matter. His mission tonight is not to attack, even when engaged, but to stay on message. If we see Biden stray from message discipline tonight, it could be a problem.
Biden must be planning to ignore Palin. He must know that they know this and are creating ways for her to engage him on a personal level. He will need to control his temper and moderate his tone. Passion is good when promoting what you stand for, bad when defending your positions.
My final take: Draw. Both candidates will do what they need to do. Advantage: Obama. McCain needs a game-changer, not a draw.
One other consideration. The House votes on the "Recovery" legislation tomorrow (a little disappointed to see that the Dems are going to play the Orwellian name game). If the debate goes horribly awry for Biden tonight (unlikely), or if Palin performs much better than expected (more likely given the low ceiling of expectations), look for a little drama in the House as the Democrats flash something shiny in front of the media to distract them from the debate.
For Palin
I expect that, freed from the follow-up questions to her non-answers, she will expound on her talking points. Some might come away saying she seemed almost credible. In previous debates, she has shown an ability to cross-over from tough question to a more comfortable talking point. Former AK Governor Tony Knowles pointedly tells how Palin was asked about health care in small communities, and turned it into a talking point about revenues and budgets.
Palin will also attack. It seems that she enjoys the competitive aspect of the attack message, and I admire her ability to do it in a very folksy manner. She will probably use every opportunity she has to paint Obama/Biden as out of touch senators compared to the change that she and McCain will bring to Washington. They probably expect Biden to try to ignore her, so look for Palin to launch attacks against Biden in an attempt to get him to engage her in an ad hoc and unprepared manner.
Finally, I think Palin will shore up some weakening conservative infrastructure tonight. In fact, as I write this, I think this will be her most important task. For the most part, she has lost the intellectual conservatives and I don't think she gets them back. But she can plug the hole with a credible performance - meaning no Couric/Gibson interview type gaffes - and provide a little red meat to her keyboarding and airwave supporters. This is a pretty low bar to hurdle and I expect her to do well.
For Biden
Not too much here either. The best thing Biden can do, in my mind, is look presidential. That alone, as he stands on stage with Gov Palin, is worth more than any attack he can levy on either Palin or McCain. Be a man of few, strong words, and re-affirm what the Obama/Biden ticket means for average Americans.
Biden needs to talk his working-class language. Whether that is loaded with Catholic code words or not does not matter. His mission tonight is not to attack, even when engaged, but to stay on message. If we see Biden stray from message discipline tonight, it could be a problem.
Biden must be planning to ignore Palin. He must know that they know this and are creating ways for her to engage him on a personal level. He will need to control his temper and moderate his tone. Passion is good when promoting what you stand for, bad when defending your positions.
My final take: Draw. Both candidates will do what they need to do. Advantage: Obama. McCain needs a game-changer, not a draw.
One other consideration. The House votes on the "Recovery" legislation tomorrow (a little disappointed to see that the Dems are going to play the Orwellian name game). If the debate goes horribly awry for Biden tonight (unlikely), or if Palin performs much better than expected (more likely given the low ceiling of expectations), look for a little drama in the House as the Democrats flash something shiny in front of the media to distract them from the debate.
Red Sox beat the Angels
That was a great pitching performance by Lester last night. Man, he's really turning into a very good pitcher - not great, just real good. I'm glad he's on the team I root for.
Lackey pitched pretty well for the Angels. The Sox just grind pitchers down. It is obvious that the Sox lineup just isn't the same without Ramirez. Most of the Sox players say the clubhouse is better, but not having Manny's bat in the lineup hurts Big Papi and creates a road map for opposing pitchers.
We'll see how this all plays out. Matsuzaka goes against Santana on Friday, and you just never know what you're going to get with DiceK. He could throw 100 pitches in the first four innings. Plus, the Angels' lineup is fearsome - Vlad is a freak of nature. I know he made a base running error last night, but he brings so much to a team. As a Sox fan, I can tell you that I know exactly where he is in the lineup at any given point in the game, and approximately how many more at bats he's going to get. I'm sure that Francona has his image plastered across his consciousness...
Just saying, Vlad is an unbelievable ballplayer. Go Sox.
Lackey pitched pretty well for the Angels. The Sox just grind pitchers down. It is obvious that the Sox lineup just isn't the same without Ramirez. Most of the Sox players say the clubhouse is better, but not having Manny's bat in the lineup hurts Big Papi and creates a road map for opposing pitchers.
We'll see how this all plays out. Matsuzaka goes against Santana on Friday, and you just never know what you're going to get with DiceK. He could throw 100 pitches in the first four innings. Plus, the Angels' lineup is fearsome - Vlad is a freak of nature. I know he made a base running error last night, but he brings so much to a team. As a Sox fan, I can tell you that I know exactly where he is in the lineup at any given point in the game, and approximately how many more at bats he's going to get. I'm sure that Francona has his image plastered across his consciousness...
Just saying, Vlad is an unbelievable ballplayer. Go Sox.
Wednesday, October 1, 2008
Flurry in Missouri
Well I did so well predicting the results of the Obama/McCain debate that I thought I'd give myself another go at it. Well, not right now, but soon. I fear that I am placing far too much emphasis on Palin's disastrous interviews on CBS to provide a credible analysis at this point.
Could it have been worse for McCain/Palin? I just can't envision it. Of course, I LMAO when I hear these unbelievable explanations for her poor performances:
She was over-prepared.
She's been over-handled.
Free Sarah.
It's a debate trap.
Let Sarah be Sarah.
She's managing expectations.
She's relating to the masses.
I'm sure I've missed some, but hooo, stop the madness. It is best to keep in mind Occam's Razor in times like these: The simplest explanation is the best explanation. She is wholly, inarguably, and incontestably unqualified.
All analysis must flow from this foundation.
Could it have been worse for McCain/Palin? I just can't envision it. Of course, I LMAO when I hear these unbelievable explanations for her poor performances:
She was over-prepared.
She's been over-handled.
Free Sarah.
It's a debate trap.
Let Sarah be Sarah.
She's managing expectations.
She's relating to the masses.
I'm sure I've missed some, but hooo, stop the madness. It is best to keep in mind Occam's Razor in times like these: The simplest explanation is the best explanation. She is wholly, inarguably, and incontestably unqualified.
All analysis must flow from this foundation.
Politics in the Granite State
There seems to be a rift between Shaheen and Shea-Porter in New Hampshire. Jeanne Shaheen is, of course, running against John Sununu for one of NH's senate seats, and Carol Shea-Porter is running for re-election in NH's 1st Congressional District.
This is just a hunch on my part - no moles divulging secrets here - but Shaheen people are loathe to even mention Carol's name. I was at an event where Jeanne's husband, Bill, was speaking and he mentioned almost every candidate but Carol. It certainly didn't seem like an accident.
On the other hand, I attended a Shea-Porter event where Carol went out of her way to praise Jeanne and urge us to support the Shaheen candidacy.
My intuition is that the Shaheen's were embarrassed by the Congressional reps (Hoades in CD 2, and Shea-Porter in CD 1) early support of Obama in NH. The Shaheens worked hard for Clinton, providing the institutional support Hillary needed to squeak out a primary victory here. That said, a Clinton blowout might have changed the primary landscape for Clinton. Extrapolating one step further, a Clinton presidential nomination, particularly with an emphasis on a significant NH victory, would have been a electoral boom for Shaheen, with Hillary making a visit or two to campaign for Jeanne.
I'm also not sure about Obama's political in-fighting techniques and whether he has been helpful to the Shaheen camp or not. It would be difficult to blame him if he conveniently ignored this race, although he's going to need all the help he can get in the Senate.
This is just a hunch on my part - no moles divulging secrets here - but Shaheen people are loathe to even mention Carol's name. I was at an event where Jeanne's husband, Bill, was speaking and he mentioned almost every candidate but Carol. It certainly didn't seem like an accident.
On the other hand, I attended a Shea-Porter event where Carol went out of her way to praise Jeanne and urge us to support the Shaheen candidacy.
My intuition is that the Shaheen's were embarrassed by the Congressional reps (Hoades in CD 2, and Shea-Porter in CD 1) early support of Obama in NH. The Shaheens worked hard for Clinton, providing the institutional support Hillary needed to squeak out a primary victory here. That said, a Clinton blowout might have changed the primary landscape for Clinton. Extrapolating one step further, a Clinton presidential nomination, particularly with an emphasis on a significant NH victory, would have been a electoral boom for Shaheen, with Hillary making a visit or two to campaign for Jeanne.
I'm also not sure about Obama's political in-fighting techniques and whether he has been helpful to the Shaheen camp or not. It would be difficult to blame him if he conveniently ignored this race, although he's going to need all the help he can get in the Senate.
There will be Paine
"If there must be trouble, let it be in my day, that my child may have peace;"
These are the times that try men's souls. And I get great comfort in knowing that our country has forged our way through many twists and turns to make our way.
No matter what Congress decides, it is clear that there is a long-road to hoe.
These are the times that try men's souls. And I get great comfort in knowing that our country has forged our way through many twists and turns to make our way.
No matter what Congress decides, it is clear that there is a long-road to hoe.
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