Hand wringing

The blogosphere is all atwitter with hand-wringing extraordinaire. McCain and Obama are tied, with McCain slightly ahead in some of the daily tracking polls.

Trust me when I say this is nothing unexpected. Both the hand-wringing and the close race. The Republicans have their best situational hitter up. McCain does not represent the party brand. For better or worse, he has crafted himself as a maverick, one who stands against party on principle. This doesn't have to be true to be believed. Thus, McCain can seem like he's a good choice to many people who wouldn't ordinarily vote for a Republican for president this year.

On the other side, let's face it, Obama wouldn't have a chance against McCain if the economy were strong, or if the situation in Iraq wasn't such a mess. The bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. Meaning, Obama's unknowns would be too much to overcome against someone of McCain's stature, all things being equal. I say this as a very strong Obama supporter.

Convention bounces are just that. Bounces. This one will fade, and the hard work of daily campaigning will continue for both these candidates. At some point in the next 3 to 6 weeks, we will start seeing polling trends for one of them. I'm convinced it will be Obama, because McCain has given up on the experience argument and the surge argument and is willing to fight Obama over change. It's not good ground for him because if you want to talk change, you have to talk policy, and the reality is that McCain has none. Simply platitudes.

Also remember, in today's political environment, a 4% popular vote win is a landslide.