Election Day

Finally.

I voted. I cast my ballot for Obama and a long list of good Democrats. Retail politics in NH is a funny thing - except for Obama/Biden, I've met every person on the ballot. And from Carol Shea-Porter down, I know each of them personally.

I've had mixed emotions all day. Part of me worries that the Republicans will find a way to steal the election. Part of me is hoping for a landslide victory. Most of me doesn't care how victory is won, just that we win it.

We've been involved in the Obama GOTV efforts here in rural NH. Canvassing all day, visibility at the poll, the Houdini project (checking to make sure our voters vote!), and vote counters after the poll closes (we still use paper ballots in our town.) All totaled, we have close to 50 people volunteering today - in a town of 3,000.

There were three people holding signs for Republicans today - eight for Democrats.

Mr. President

I'm trying hard not to let my thoughts wander to an Obama victory for a variety reasons. The most of important of which is that I become very emotional. It disturbs me on a visceral level that we built our country through the use of human slaves. I can almost not bear to think about it - the trading and selling of humans, breaking families apart, the beatings, the hardships.

This became difficult for me in 8th grade when I read The Adventures of Huckleberry Finn. When Huck and Jim are on the raft, and Jim tells Huck he's looking to get free so he can earn some money to buy his family back, it hit me hard. I still think about it some 35 years later.

I argued with my aunt a few years ago about whether we'd have a woman or a black president first. We both thought either would be difficult, but she believed that women faced more difficult obstacles. I thought that racism was alive and well in too many states, both south and north, east and west, and it would be too difficult to overcome.

And if you had included into the discussion that the first black president would be named Barack Hussein Obama, I would not have taken it seriously. So, we are on the cusp of our first African-American Presidency. Remarkable.

GOTV Fun

We had a great viz this morning. Four of us on NH Route 4, which is a state highway. Honks and waves outnumbered negative reactions, mostly thumbs down, by an unofficial tally of 10 to 1. Billy Shaheen drove by with his entourage in a beat up Chevy (you have to love NH retail politics!) and gave us some horn love.

Our local Grange Hall is campaign headquarters, and a local merchant provided some internet access. Essentially, the access is a 150' long ethernet cable that runs out a window, across the street and into the Grange! I'm sure there are similar stories across the country, but what makes this unique, in my mind, is that the local merchants are Republicans - they're voting hope this election.

I'm heading back down there in an hour or two to set up a wireless router for them.

I've just never had this much fun in a political campaign before.

Tighten This

WMUR is reporting a tightening of the presidential race in NH as Obama's lead has slipped to 11 points.

Bite me.

Two Days

It's Sunday. We have a full day of GOTV ahead of us and I've got to get some work done. Still have to pay bills and eat, and volunteering just doesn't bring home the bacon.

I was tired heading into the weekend. It seems that that tiredness has evolved into a determination to see this through to the end. It's been cold here in NH, and doing the visabilities requires some thermal preparation.

The most surprising and somewhat amusing thing to me is how much I've enjoyed the negative reactions from folks. Believe me, they're few and far between, but every once in a while we get a whack job driving by. At a busy, busy, intersection on a NH highway, we had a nutcase drive by and turn completely backward to holler out the back of his compact pickup truck window. I mean, the guy completely took his eyes off the road for full seconds to holler back. We returned his profanity laced tirade with laughter and waves, and got the bonus of seeing his eyes almost bulge from the sockets!

It's been a great GOTV effort. We've rented the Grange Hall here in our town, and are organizing a small army - around 150 people. Pretty amazing when you realize this is a town of about 3k, and in '04 we had trouble finding folks to do viz at the polls.

Vote Hope.

Ain't No Mountain High Enough

I feel compelled to weigh in on the Obama infomercial tonight. What will it be?

My sense is that Obama will re-assure voters about who he is. McCain's been slinging some crap for a couple weeks, and I think Obama will re-affirm his positions on tax policy, health insurance, energy policy, and foreign policy. The big ones.

Now, 1/2 hour is not a lot of time so expectations should be ratcheted down. It would be terrific if Obama had a specialist on to sell these Obama programs. Would it be effective for Warren Buffet to make a 5 minute appearance and sell the Obama tax/economic program? Colin Powell selling the foreign policy?

Does this make sense?

What's Going On?

McCain's Truman analogies are enough to make me gag. As McCain describes it, the polls are all wrong, and like Harry, his comeback will be the stuff of legend. I suppose when you trail in the polls as McCain does, you need to do some serious morale boosting to keep the campaign going. Who wants to vote for a loser, let alone work for one? McCain must maintain his fictional reading to keep everyone from jumping ship, and lowering turnout.

That said, his use of Truman is offensive to me. Not that I'm a huge Truman fan, mind you - Hiroshima and Nagasaki are the first things that pop in mind when I hear his name - but we'll save that argument for another day. The problem I have is that Truman was a populist, a common man for the common good. In every conceivable way, Truman is the antithesis of McCain.

Truman supported civil rights and a national health care system. Compare that to McCain's complicity in the fear mongering and creating racial tensions. If nothing else, his silence is deafening. McCain deserves everything his poorly run campaign has coming to them. So pay no attention to the man behind the curtain this week. McCain is simply going through the motions trying to stop the train wreck.

Look for for all remaining passengers to get off at the next available stop.

Bright, Bright,

Sunshiney Day!

Man it was cold this morning. 34 degrees and windyyyyy. Brrrrrr.

Yet we still had 8 at our viz in our rural, small NH town! We held signs and received cheers from 7 am to 9 am. Our GOTV efforts are in full force - we have canvasses and visibilities scheduled right through election day.

Last night, in a driving rain storm, we turned out 35 volunteers to help plan our GOTV! I am so jazzed! (you know I'm jazzed when I use multiple exclamation marks in one paragraph.)

Another viz scheduled for me at 4 pm. What are you doing?

Race for the White House

What is the state of race in the US?

I live a fairly isolated life here in rural NH. We don't have to work at race relations, because, quite frankly, we don't have any diversity to relate to. It's easy for people like me to underestimate the impact of race in areas of the country where race is a factor.

I remember talking to an in-law a few years ago. This particular person grew up in an integrated city in New England, and rationalized a racist perspective on isolated personal experiences. Knowing this person as I do, I'm fairly confident in believing that his distrust and low opinion of minorities is reciprocated in-kind. These types of beliefs are difficult to camouflage, and tend to be reinforcing.

The final results on November 4 will be instructive. My best guess, and what I truly want to believe, is that the vast majority of Americans will vote for who they think can best guide our country during these difficult times. I understand that there is a small segment of our population that will choose a candidate based on skin color alone, but I am resolved to believe it is, indeed, a small segment.

Say Goodbye

Watching McCain flail around is somewhat sad, although tempered by a healthy resentment of Republican policies. I think when historians look back on this era, they will write admiringly of the hoodwink job that the Republicans were able to pull on the American public.

You simply can't make me believe that there are 50 million Americans who have benefited from Bush/Frist/Delay policies during the past eight years. Yet, that's how many people will vote for a continuation of these policies. If not more.

Handicapping Tonight

I don't expect much tonight. The format works for Palin and Biden is an old pro.

For Palin
I expect that, freed from the follow-up questions to her non-answers, she will expound on her talking points. Some might come away saying she seemed almost credible. In previous debates, she has shown an ability to cross-over from tough question to a more comfortable talking point. Former AK Governor Tony Knowles pointedly tells how Palin was asked about health care in small communities, and turned it into a talking point about revenues and budgets.

Palin will also attack. It seems that she enjoys the competitive aspect of the attack message, and I admire her ability to do it in a very folksy manner. She will probably use every opportunity she has to paint Obama/Biden as out of touch senators compared to the change that she and McCain will bring to Washington. They probably expect Biden to try to ignore her, so look for Palin to launch attacks against Biden in an attempt to get him to engage her in an ad hoc and unprepared manner.

Finally, I think Palin will shore up some weakening conservative infrastructure tonight. In fact, as I write this, I think this will be her most important task. For the most part, she has lost the intellectual conservatives and I don't think she gets them back. But she can plug the hole with a credible performance - meaning no Couric/Gibson interview type gaffes - and provide a little red meat to her keyboarding and airwave supporters. This is a pretty low bar to hurdle and I expect her to do well.

For Biden
Not too much here either. The best thing Biden can do, in my mind, is look presidential. That alone, as he stands on stage with Gov Palin, is worth more than any attack he can levy on either Palin or McCain. Be a man of few, strong words, and re-affirm what the Obama/Biden ticket means for average Americans.

Biden needs to talk his working-class language. Whether that is loaded with Catholic code words or not does not matter. His mission tonight is not to attack, even when engaged, but to stay on message. If we see Biden stray from message discipline tonight, it could be a problem.

Biden must be planning to ignore Palin. He must know that they know this and are creating ways for her to engage him on a personal level. He will need to control his temper and moderate his tone. Passion is good when promoting what you stand for, bad when defending your positions.

My final take: Draw. Both candidates will do what they need to do. Advantage: Obama. McCain needs a game-changer, not a draw.

One other consideration. The House votes on the "Recovery" legislation tomorrow (a little disappointed to see that the Dems are going to play the Orwellian name game). If the debate goes horribly awry for Biden tonight (unlikely), or if Palin performs much better than expected (more likely given the low ceiling of expectations), look for a little drama in the House as the Democrats flash something shiny in front of the media to distract them from the debate.

Flurry in Missouri

Well I did so well predicting the results of the Obama/McCain debate that I thought I'd give myself another go at it. Well, not right now, but soon. I fear that I am placing far too much emphasis on Palin's disastrous interviews on CBS to provide a credible analysis at this point.

Could it have been worse for McCain/Palin? I just can't envision it. Of course, I LMAO when I hear these unbelievable explanations for her poor performances:
She was over-prepared.
She's been over-handled.
Free Sarah.
It's a debate trap.
Let Sarah be Sarah.
She's managing expectations.
She's relating to the masses.

I'm sure I've missed some, but hooo, stop the madness. It is best to keep in mind Occam's Razor in times like these: The simplest explanation is the best explanation. She is wholly, inarguably, and incontestably unqualified.

All analysis must flow from this foundation.

Politics in the Granite State

There seems to be a rift between Shaheen and Shea-Porter in New Hampshire. Jeanne Shaheen is, of course, running against John Sununu for one of NH's senate seats, and Carol Shea-Porter is running for re-election in NH's 1st Congressional District.

This is just a hunch on my part - no moles divulging secrets here - but Shaheen people are loathe to even mention Carol's name. I was at an event where Jeanne's husband, Bill, was speaking and he mentioned almost every candidate but Carol. It certainly didn't seem like an accident.

On the other hand, I attended a Shea-Porter event where Carol went out of her way to praise Jeanne and urge us to support the Shaheen candidacy.

My intuition is that the Shaheen's were embarrassed by the Congressional reps (Hoades in CD 2, and Shea-Porter in CD 1) early support of Obama in NH. The Shaheens worked hard for Clinton, providing the institutional support Hillary needed to squeak out a primary victory here. That said, a Clinton blowout might have changed the primary landscape for Clinton. Extrapolating one step further, a Clinton presidential nomination, particularly with an emphasis on a significant NH victory, would have been a electoral boom for Shaheen, with Hillary making a visit or two to campaign for Jeanne.

I'm also not sure about Obama's political in-fighting techniques and whether he has been helpful to the Shaheen camp or not. It would be difficult to blame him if he conveniently ignored this race, although he's going to need all the help he can get in the Senate.

Debate follow-up

There was a general feeling of let-down at the debate party I attended at the conclusion of the debate. Many felt that Obama did not do enough to stop McCain's bullying tactics.

I felt a little differently. It seemed to me that Obama was not debating for the votes of the people that I watched the debate with. Indeed, even if most of Sen McCain's wild accusations against Sen Obama were true, Obama would have carried the room I was in by a landslide. Obama was courting undecideds and slight lean McCain votes.

McCain's erratic behavior has provided enough fodder for folks just slightly leaning toward him to pause. There is no reasonable way to explain his bizarre campaign and the media has simply given up trying to find plausible explanations for him. Combine that with Schmidt and Davis basically declaring war on the media, and you have the makings of a self-destructing campaign.

Obama and his staff of aces understand this in a way that those of us on the left simply cannot comprehend. I remember feeling this way during the Dem debates when I thought Obama could have cleaned Clinton's clock. But he didn't. And even though, allegedly, legions of Clinton supporters bearing pitchforks and torches were upset with Obama, he never retaliated or made Clinton look bad. Obama simply refused to pour fuel on his opponents rage...

He has done the same with McCain. As McCain hates Obama more with each passing day, Obama offers praise and friendship. Always reaching out - at least in appearances. Yes, there are campaign slams, but these are mostly about policy, and McCain's judgement about those policies. Obama is offering a road map for those not happy with McCain's recent metamorphosis to vote for the Dems. It is working spectacularly.

There is a lot of time left in this election. Anything can happen. Obama's margin for error is probably smaller than for any other candidate for president in our history. Not only do the Obama people know this, they have used it to their advantage.

Republican Movement

to dump McCain.

Good lord, McCain has become completely unhinged. He has shifted his position like an organ grinder - not for bailouts, for bailouts, suspending campaigns, not suspending campaigns, won't debate, will debate...ayeyaya.

What we are witnessing is a train wreck in slow motion. McCain is the engineer. Upon seeing the upcoming cliff, McCain is pulling back hard on all levers and trying to stop or turn the train around. Nothing is working.

There isn't much left to do, and how McCain responds will speak volumes about him, as it did of the Clintons. When the fight was lost, the Clintons continued to hammer and punish Obama. They went racial - don't think for a moment that Bill's antics in South Carolina weren't intended for audiences in PA and Ohio - they went personal. It didn't work then, I feel more confident it won't work now. Obama and the Dems gave the Clintons a second chance - I am not enamored by the lukewarm support thus far.

Sadly, I expect McCain to unleash a fury of personal and ad hominem attacks on Obama tonight. McCain cannot afford a tie. He cannot afford to have Obama look strong and presidential. Obama must maintain his composure, parry McCain effectively, and take the fight to McCain at times, hoping to keep McCain on his heels.

There are ramped up expectations for tonight. Millions will tune in... Tonight's the night that makes me nervous.

Republican movement

to dumb Palin.

At what point is Palin mauled by polar bears, making room for Romney on the ticket? Seriously.

Republicans cannot be happy with her performance, and must be petrified about Tuesday Night Lights in front of a national audience. Under the most modest of circumstances, with soft lighting and a friendly interviewer, Palin is withering. And folks, these aren't hard questions that Couric is asking. I'm willing to bet that most people who pay attention day-to-day could give better answers.

The powers that be in the Republican party must be pretty anxious right now. I'm sure that Schmidt, Davis and the rest of the campaign staff are getting earfuls about this. It's really that obvious. Her performance is abysmal and getting worse.

I mean, "Putin rears his head..."?

Steady as She Goes

I've always felt that the election would come down to the issues, no matter how hard the McCain camp pressed otherwise. Of course, not owning a crystal ball, I did not foresee this financial crisis and it's impact on the election. Obama continues to show a steady hand, a firm grasp of the situation, and if he's a little light on details, it works in his favor because he leaves himself room to negotiate in a bipartisan manner. All this without alienating the other side, or losing the confidence of the John Q. Public.

Bad Form

I think what we are seeing is a first-class opportunist. This whole gambit just reeks of hidden agendas and ulterior motives. There are so many sub-plots to this that it is almost scary to consider. I'm tired, it's late, but here are a few random thoughts:

1. McCain needs to get the credit for a Wall Street "rescue." If he can't do that, he needs to sabotage an agreement so that he can blame Bush, Democrats, and by extension, Obama.
2. His grandstanding today, while Obama was working with him quietly in the background, suggests McCain is gaming his position on the bailout.
3. McCain continues to draw attention to himself with these bizarre maneuvers. I warned about his gambling addiction and that we were probably going to see more of his quirky behavior.
4. Postponing the debate on Friday is simply subterfuge for postponing the VP debate. Unless Palin's performance in the two softball interviews are ambushes in waiting, the McCain camp must be petrified about her readiness for next week. There will not be a VP debate next week. Take it to the bank. They cannot allow it.
5. Attention has been shifted from McCain's lobbyist problem (Rick Davis - Fannie and Freddie), and the campaign is getting tons of free face time.

Maybe I'm all wet. Maybe I'm just tired. Or maybe, like many others, I'm suffering from McCain Political Stunt Fatigue. Only time will tell.

I can't wait for November and this surreal election to be over.

Suspending Belief

This is almost unbelievable. McCain is suspending his campaign - whatever the hell that means - and is calling on Obama to do the same.

My first reaction is that McCain is near panic. This is another in a long line of knee-jerk, over reactions. He certainly loves postponing and cancelling.

This is not putting country first. This is grandstanding at a disgusting level. Our political process should push forward...that is the constant in our system. What's next, McCain calling for the election to be postponed?

I Know You Are...

But what am I? Also known as: "Nana Nana Poo Poo."

You gotta be f&^%&$g kidding me. McCain is out there shouting about a 10 minute telephone conversation Obama had with a VP of Fannie Mae while his campaign manager was receiving $350k a year from Fannie and Freddie.

You just can't make this stuff up.