I watched the debate with about 20 hard-core Dems last night who were revved up when Biden was deftly attacking McCain. Good stuff. We had a min-discussion of our own about Palin's use of the word "also."
My humble opinion is that the word is a verbal crutch for her. "Also" in the context that Palin uses it, reflects her intellectual incapacity to relate the initial verbal argument to the argument for which "also" refers.
Others thought it sounded like a tick, something she is saying as talking points come to her at the last minute.
One thing we all agreed on. Never had we heard the word so mis-used by anyone under any circumstances. It was awful.
Showing posts with label Palin. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Palin. Show all posts
Friday, October 3, 2008
Post Debate
My initial reaction last night was that, politically speaking, both candidates did what they needed to do. Palin, speaking in gibberish/talking points, was able to finish the debate without vomiting on the stage. Biden, avoided condescension and mockery, sounded knowledgeable and surprisingly salient. I admit to being somewhat surprised by Biden's shift to attack McCain mode about 1/3 of the way in.
So, politically, this was a draw. Technically, a Biden trouncing of Palin. In the final analysis, this debate will not matter, which is not good for McCain's chances.
The House is debating the Senate "Rescue" bill. Probably won't be much debate coverage on TeeVee.
So, politically, this was a draw. Technically, a Biden trouncing of Palin. In the final analysis, this debate will not matter, which is not good for McCain's chances.
The House is debating the Senate "Rescue" bill. Probably won't be much debate coverage on TeeVee.
Thursday, October 2, 2008
Handicapping Tonight
I don't expect much tonight. The format works for Palin and Biden is an old pro.
For Palin
I expect that, freed from the follow-up questions to her non-answers, she will expound on her talking points. Some might come away saying she seemed almost credible. In previous debates, she has shown an ability to cross-over from tough question to a more comfortable talking point. Former AK Governor Tony Knowles pointedly tells how Palin was asked about health care in small communities, and turned it into a talking point about revenues and budgets.
Palin will also attack. It seems that she enjoys the competitive aspect of the attack message, and I admire her ability to do it in a very folksy manner. She will probably use every opportunity she has to paint Obama/Biden as out of touch senators compared to the change that she and McCain will bring to Washington. They probably expect Biden to try to ignore her, so look for Palin to launch attacks against Biden in an attempt to get him to engage her in an ad hoc and unprepared manner.
Finally, I think Palin will shore up some weakening conservative infrastructure tonight. In fact, as I write this, I think this will be her most important task. For the most part, she has lost the intellectual conservatives and I don't think she gets them back. But she can plug the hole with a credible performance - meaning no Couric/Gibson interview type gaffes - and provide a little red meat to her keyboarding and airwave supporters. This is a pretty low bar to hurdle and I expect her to do well.
For Biden
Not too much here either. The best thing Biden can do, in my mind, is look presidential. That alone, as he stands on stage with Gov Palin, is worth more than any attack he can levy on either Palin or McCain. Be a man of few, strong words, and re-affirm what the Obama/Biden ticket means for average Americans.
Biden needs to talk his working-class language. Whether that is loaded with Catholic code words or not does not matter. His mission tonight is not to attack, even when engaged, but to stay on message. If we see Biden stray from message discipline tonight, it could be a problem.
Biden must be planning to ignore Palin. He must know that they know this and are creating ways for her to engage him on a personal level. He will need to control his temper and moderate his tone. Passion is good when promoting what you stand for, bad when defending your positions.
My final take: Draw. Both candidates will do what they need to do. Advantage: Obama. McCain needs a game-changer, not a draw.
One other consideration. The House votes on the "Recovery" legislation tomorrow (a little disappointed to see that the Dems are going to play the Orwellian name game). If the debate goes horribly awry for Biden tonight (unlikely), or if Palin performs much better than expected (more likely given the low ceiling of expectations), look for a little drama in the House as the Democrats flash something shiny in front of the media to distract them from the debate.
For Palin
I expect that, freed from the follow-up questions to her non-answers, she will expound on her talking points. Some might come away saying she seemed almost credible. In previous debates, she has shown an ability to cross-over from tough question to a more comfortable talking point. Former AK Governor Tony Knowles pointedly tells how Palin was asked about health care in small communities, and turned it into a talking point about revenues and budgets.
Palin will also attack. It seems that she enjoys the competitive aspect of the attack message, and I admire her ability to do it in a very folksy manner. She will probably use every opportunity she has to paint Obama/Biden as out of touch senators compared to the change that she and McCain will bring to Washington. They probably expect Biden to try to ignore her, so look for Palin to launch attacks against Biden in an attempt to get him to engage her in an ad hoc and unprepared manner.
Finally, I think Palin will shore up some weakening conservative infrastructure tonight. In fact, as I write this, I think this will be her most important task. For the most part, she has lost the intellectual conservatives and I don't think she gets them back. But she can plug the hole with a credible performance - meaning no Couric/Gibson interview type gaffes - and provide a little red meat to her keyboarding and airwave supporters. This is a pretty low bar to hurdle and I expect her to do well.
For Biden
Not too much here either. The best thing Biden can do, in my mind, is look presidential. That alone, as he stands on stage with Gov Palin, is worth more than any attack he can levy on either Palin or McCain. Be a man of few, strong words, and re-affirm what the Obama/Biden ticket means for average Americans.
Biden needs to talk his working-class language. Whether that is loaded with Catholic code words or not does not matter. His mission tonight is not to attack, even when engaged, but to stay on message. If we see Biden stray from message discipline tonight, it could be a problem.
Biden must be planning to ignore Palin. He must know that they know this and are creating ways for her to engage him on a personal level. He will need to control his temper and moderate his tone. Passion is good when promoting what you stand for, bad when defending your positions.
My final take: Draw. Both candidates will do what they need to do. Advantage: Obama. McCain needs a game-changer, not a draw.
One other consideration. The House votes on the "Recovery" legislation tomorrow (a little disappointed to see that the Dems are going to play the Orwellian name game). If the debate goes horribly awry for Biden tonight (unlikely), or if Palin performs much better than expected (more likely given the low ceiling of expectations), look for a little drama in the House as the Democrats flash something shiny in front of the media to distract them from the debate.
Wednesday, October 1, 2008
Flurry in Missouri
Well I did so well predicting the results of the Obama/McCain debate that I thought I'd give myself another go at it. Well, not right now, but soon. I fear that I am placing far too much emphasis on Palin's disastrous interviews on CBS to provide a credible analysis at this point.
Could it have been worse for McCain/Palin? I just can't envision it. Of course, I LMAO when I hear these unbelievable explanations for her poor performances:
She was over-prepared.
She's been over-handled.
Free Sarah.
It's a debate trap.
Let Sarah be Sarah.
She's managing expectations.
She's relating to the masses.
I'm sure I've missed some, but hooo, stop the madness. It is best to keep in mind Occam's Razor in times like these: The simplest explanation is the best explanation. She is wholly, inarguably, and incontestably unqualified.
All analysis must flow from this foundation.
Could it have been worse for McCain/Palin? I just can't envision it. Of course, I LMAO when I hear these unbelievable explanations for her poor performances:
She was over-prepared.
She's been over-handled.
Free Sarah.
It's a debate trap.
Let Sarah be Sarah.
She's managing expectations.
She's relating to the masses.
I'm sure I've missed some, but hooo, stop the madness. It is best to keep in mind Occam's Razor in times like these: The simplest explanation is the best explanation. She is wholly, inarguably, and incontestably unqualified.
All analysis must flow from this foundation.
Friday, September 26, 2008
Airspace
That's the word that keeps rumbling around in my thoughts as I watched the Couric interviews with Palin.
Honestly, can anyone, in any party, think that Palin is a good choice for Ambassador to Alaska, let alone the Vice Presidency? This is going to get very ugly. I'd love to be a fly on the wall in the McCain campaign - the internecine struggle at this point must be getting deadly. Watch for the rats jumping from the sinking ship. Note who they are, because it will tell us much about which direction the Molly McCain will be sailing in.
Airspace. Seriously, airspace.
Honestly, can anyone, in any party, think that Palin is a good choice for Ambassador to Alaska, let alone the Vice Presidency? This is going to get very ugly. I'd love to be a fly on the wall in the McCain campaign - the internecine struggle at this point must be getting deadly. Watch for the rats jumping from the sinking ship. Note who they are, because it will tell us much about which direction the Molly McCain will be sailing in.
Airspace. Seriously, airspace.
Thursday, September 25, 2008
Republican movement
to dumb Palin.
At what point is Palin mauled by polar bears, making room for Romney on the ticket? Seriously.
Republicans cannot be happy with her performance, and must be petrified about Tuesday Night Lights in front of a national audience. Under the most modest of circumstances, with soft lighting and a friendly interviewer, Palin is withering. And folks, these aren't hard questions that Couric is asking. I'm willing to bet that most people who pay attention day-to-day could give better answers.
The powers that be in the Republican party must be pretty anxious right now. I'm sure that Schmidt, Davis and the rest of the campaign staff are getting earfuls about this. It's really that obvious. Her performance is abysmal and getting worse.
I mean, "Putin rears his head..."?
At what point is Palin mauled by polar bears, making room for Romney on the ticket? Seriously.
Republicans cannot be happy with her performance, and must be petrified about Tuesday Night Lights in front of a national audience. Under the most modest of circumstances, with soft lighting and a friendly interviewer, Palin is withering. And folks, these aren't hard questions that Couric is asking. I'm willing to bet that most people who pay attention day-to-day could give better answers.
The powers that be in the Republican party must be pretty anxious right now. I'm sure that Schmidt, Davis and the rest of the campaign staff are getting earfuls about this. It's really that obvious. Her performance is abysmal and getting worse.
I mean, "Putin rears his head..."?
Friday, September 12, 2008
Palin Interview
I've seen only clips of ABC's interview with Governor Palin, but I simply refuse to believe that the American public would elect such a novice. She obviously is bright and has political talent, but she is not up to the task of being VP of the US.
It is also disappointing that no matter how many lies that the McCain/Palin camp are being caught in, it is just not swaying public opinion. How is this so? I do want to understand, but can't get my arms around it.
Someone please enlighten me.
It is also disappointing that no matter how many lies that the McCain/Palin camp are being caught in, it is just not swaying public opinion. How is this so? I do want to understand, but can't get my arms around it.
Someone please enlighten me.
Thursday, September 11, 2008
Truth Speak
Why is it that our Hollywood celebrity types speak truth to power better than our media? How is it possible that wankers like Broder and Cohen have jobs when they can't see the danger in this?
What's the difference between mooseshit and bullshit?
Lipstick.
What's the difference between mooseshit and bullshit?
Lipstick.
Friday, September 5, 2008
Tuesday, September 2, 2008
She's Come Undone
I'm starting to feel sorry for Palin and her family. She seems like a good person, with a solid family...Being thrust onto the national stage before your time says more about the thrusters.
The rollout of bad news is simply stunning. Her family is under seige, and it will extend to friends of the kids like a small-town soap opera. There is some talk of her withdrawal - as usual it is couched the way most support is framed. How many big-league managers read about having ownership's support just before getting canned? It's a comical kiss-of-death to receive that support.
The Republicans must be in near panic mode. It should be shame. These are their chickens coming home to roost.
The rollout of bad news is simply stunning. Her family is under seige, and it will extend to friends of the kids like a small-town soap opera. There is some talk of her withdrawal - as usual it is couched the way most support is framed. How many big-league managers read about having ownership's support just before getting canned? It's a comical kiss-of-death to receive that support.
The Republicans must be in near panic mode. It should be shame. These are their chickens coming home to roost.
Monday, September 1, 2008
Come on, Lucky 7
I'm not an expert on gambling. My experiences with betting - mostly football, some baseball - have been really, really bad. I have had mixed luck with low-stakes poker, mostly playing for the camaraderie, sport, and entertainment. I have also spent more than I could afford at casinos, mostly blackjack tables.
Most of my bad experiences (read: losing enough to feel terrible about it) were the result of what some poker players call "Tilting". I'm not positive, but I think this is an old pinball game reference, where a player gets emotional and then too rough with the pinball machine. When on "Tilt", a gambler is emotionally involved with the game and is not engaging the intellectual component of the mind. The cash flies out much more quickly as the player is desperate to win back the lost dough.
Why do I mention any of this? It seems to me that we overlook McCain's gambling addiction at our peril. My sense is that we'll see more gambles, some doubling-down on Palin, or perhaps just gutter politics. I'm not really sure, and maybe I'm all wet. But I've been in gambling situations before, I've seen people step out of character, even for a moment, when they think they see their pot of goal right in front of them. Almost always it's a mirage.
Keep an eye on the McCain camp. Craps players always think they're about to get hot...they usually think this way right up until they run out of money.
Most of my bad experiences (read: losing enough to feel terrible about it) were the result of what some poker players call "Tilting". I'm not positive, but I think this is an old pinball game reference, where a player gets emotional and then too rough with the pinball machine. When on "Tilt", a gambler is emotionally involved with the game and is not engaging the intellectual component of the mind. The cash flies out much more quickly as the player is desperate to win back the lost dough.
Why do I mention any of this? It seems to me that we overlook McCain's gambling addiction at our peril. My sense is that we'll see more gambles, some doubling-down on Palin, or perhaps just gutter politics. I'm not really sure, and maybe I'm all wet. But I've been in gambling situations before, I've seen people step out of character, even for a moment, when they think they see their pot of goal right in front of them. Almost always it's a mirage.
Keep an eye on the McCain camp. Craps players always think they're about to get hot...they usually think this way right up until they run out of money.
Sunday, August 31, 2008
BS
The AP is pushing back on Palin's claim to have killed the "Bridge to Nowhere." This could be embarrassing for McCain.
Was she vetted?
Was she vetted?
Talk Shows
So far no TeeVee sighting of Palin on talk shows. I'm convinced that the republicans will do all they can to limit her exposure to MSM...we all know how driven the reporters are to get an accurate story. Palin seems bright and energetic, which is a plus for JM, but nobody could be ready for the onslaught that is about to hit her. There's simply too much too learn in too short a time.
The learning curve involves not just information but delivery, body language, choice of words, and confidence. Palin seems to be able to deliver a stump speech fairly confidently, but let's remember that she is mostly singing her life story - not nuancing a policy position to eliminate inconsistencies.
At some point, she will no longer be able to dodge the spotlight. Her performance under trying conditions will speak volumes about her abilities and potential and could go a long way in convincing voters one way or another. McCain cannot keep her from the public - there are just too many unknowns. He must let her sink or swim.
Many conservative writers are not happy with this pick, especially the foreign policy type. The narrative in the MSM has gone from what seems like pleasant surprise to mild disbelief. Risk, gamble, unknown, inexperienced are all words being used to describe this pick.
I might add that reporters have not had time to vet the story line that Palin and McCain are pushing regarding the Alaskan bridge to nowhere. Story is that Palin, being the maverick that she is, blocked a federal earmark for a bridge. There are some newspaper reports that cast doubt on this storyline - for a candidate already embroiled in one lying scandal, not being honest on your first day could spell doom.
The learning curve involves not just information but delivery, body language, choice of words, and confidence. Palin seems to be able to deliver a stump speech fairly confidently, but let's remember that she is mostly singing her life story - not nuancing a policy position to eliminate inconsistencies.
At some point, she will no longer be able to dodge the spotlight. Her performance under trying conditions will speak volumes about her abilities and potential and could go a long way in convincing voters one way or another. McCain cannot keep her from the public - there are just too many unknowns. He must let her sink or swim.
Many conservative writers are not happy with this pick, especially the foreign policy type. The narrative in the MSM has gone from what seems like pleasant surprise to mild disbelief. Risk, gamble, unknown, inexperienced are all words being used to describe this pick.
I might add that reporters have not had time to vet the story line that Palin and McCain are pushing regarding the Alaskan bridge to nowhere. Story is that Palin, being the maverick that she is, blocked a federal earmark for a bridge. There are some newspaper reports that cast doubt on this storyline - for a candidate already embroiled in one lying scandal, not being honest on your first day could spell doom.
Saturday, August 30, 2008
Good Wood
Been out stacking wood all day. Winter's coming.
Caught some TeeVee while eating lunch and it seems like the Palin pick is designed to pick a fight over experience. At every opportunity, when the topic turns to Palin's inexperience, the repub talking head invariably informs all the viewers that she has more experience than Obama.
I have been befuddled by McCain's choice for many reasons. Not the least of which is how much energy the republicans are going to expend on defending the choice. It seems, at least at first impression, that they are willing to do this because they can highlight what they see as Obama's inexperience.
It's a long shot, but what really does McCain have left? He's been consistently behind in the national polls, behind or too close to call in almost every swing state, and he's thrown everything he has at Obama. Desperate times call for desperate measures, I suppose.
I keep reading that Palin shouldn't be criticized for accepting the VP offer when she has 5 children. I whole-heartedly agree, the problem is, I haven't read any criticism of her for just that reason. I have a feeling that these arguments are being built as an inoculation against any criticism of Palin - another disingenuous attempt to affront women. Good luck with that.
See you back in the Senate, Mr. McCain.
Caught some TeeVee while eating lunch and it seems like the Palin pick is designed to pick a fight over experience. At every opportunity, when the topic turns to Palin's inexperience, the repub talking head invariably informs all the viewers that she has more experience than Obama.
I have been befuddled by McCain's choice for many reasons. Not the least of which is how much energy the republicans are going to expend on defending the choice. It seems, at least at first impression, that they are willing to do this because they can highlight what they see as Obama's inexperience.
It's a long shot, but what really does McCain have left? He's been consistently behind in the national polls, behind or too close to call in almost every swing state, and he's thrown everything he has at Obama. Desperate times call for desperate measures, I suppose.
I keep reading that Palin shouldn't be criticized for accepting the VP offer when she has 5 children. I whole-heartedly agree, the problem is, I haven't read any criticism of her for just that reason. I have a feeling that these arguments are being built as an inoculation against any criticism of Palin - another disingenuous attempt to affront women. Good luck with that.
See you back in the Senate, Mr. McCain.
Palinode
PALINode - appropriately, a formal statement of retraction.
Jumpin' Jeebus, this didn't take long.
LA Times Headline:
McCain's choice of Palin is a risk
It is simply surreal that McCain, in one fell swoop, could turn what was a fairly significant political advantage, judgement and experience, into a political liability. His pick of Palin reeks of political tactic, not of putting the country first. McCain has succeeded in revving up the base a little, but this will ebb shortly. He has just created a huge problem with independents...the voices of the conservative right are not being kind about Palin. The chorus will only grow louder, as McCain simply does not have the deep ties within the Republican party to quell what is sure to be out and out groaning over the next weeks.
McCain and the republicans have sunk tens of millions of dollars into a campaign designed to make Obama look risky and unprepared. Now it is McCain who looks unprepared - he met Palin only twice for a few moments each time before her selection? Now it is McCain who looks risky - a governor for less than two years of a state with 600,000 people a heartbeat away from leader of the free world? Now it is McCain who puts politics above country - Obama chose wisely. Biden as VP signals a seriousness about governing and signals that we will have a healthy national debate about foreign policy. Palin may help McCain excite the base, but if elected on election day, her carriage turns back into a pumpkin.
Stunned is still my reaction, and I remain convinced that this will implode on McCain in the not too distant future.
Jumpin' Jeebus, this didn't take long.
LA Times Headline:
McCain's choice of Palin is a risk
It is simply surreal that McCain, in one fell swoop, could turn what was a fairly significant political advantage, judgement and experience, into a political liability. His pick of Palin reeks of political tactic, not of putting the country first. McCain has succeeded in revving up the base a little, but this will ebb shortly. He has just created a huge problem with independents...the voices of the conservative right are not being kind about Palin. The chorus will only grow louder, as McCain simply does not have the deep ties within the Republican party to quell what is sure to be out and out groaning over the next weeks.
McCain and the republicans have sunk tens of millions of dollars into a campaign designed to make Obama look risky and unprepared. Now it is McCain who looks unprepared - he met Palin only twice for a few moments each time before her selection? Now it is McCain who looks risky - a governor for less than two years of a state with 600,000 people a heartbeat away from leader of the free world? Now it is McCain who puts politics above country - Obama chose wisely. Biden as VP signals a seriousness about governing and signals that we will have a healthy national debate about foreign policy. Palin may help McCain excite the base, but if elected on election day, her carriage turns back into a pumpkin.
Stunned is still my reaction, and I remain convinced that this will implode on McCain in the not too distant future.
Friday, August 29, 2008
Penny-wise
The McCain camp did an excellent job today of disrupting the accolades that Obama was receiving for his speech last night. Tactically, it was a brilliant move.
Keep an eye out for the changing story line in the MSM as the Palin pick goes from surprise to doubt. This won't take long.
I've seen some skimpy comparisons to Tim Kaine's resume, arguing that it is sexist to say Palin is not qualified for VP. It's not sexist. Although Kaine's resume is a little thin, it is much more substantive than Palin's. By a lot. Maybe it's more sexist to put a woman on the ticket because of her gender rather than her qualifications. After all, nobody can argue that there aren't Republican women who are infinitely more qualified.
The storms in the Gulf are posing a very big PR problem for the repubs. The convention had to be designed to inform about Palin...this is a big bucket of mush for them right now.
The excitement of this pick will wane for all but the most ardent religious right voters. The MSM will rightly start to question the wisdom and judgement of this pick. They will get plenty of help from conservative republicans who do take this pick seriously, not to mention those of whom were pretty well strung along during the VP stakes.
This is going to get ugly.
Keep an eye out for the changing story line in the MSM as the Palin pick goes from surprise to doubt. This won't take long.
I've seen some skimpy comparisons to Tim Kaine's resume, arguing that it is sexist to say Palin is not qualified for VP. It's not sexist. Although Kaine's resume is a little thin, it is much more substantive than Palin's. By a lot. Maybe it's more sexist to put a woman on the ticket because of her gender rather than her qualifications. After all, nobody can argue that there aren't Republican women who are infinitely more qualified.
The storms in the Gulf are posing a very big PR problem for the repubs. The convention had to be designed to inform about Palin...this is a big bucket of mush for them right now.
The excitement of this pick will wane for all but the most ardent religious right voters. The MSM will rightly start to question the wisdom and judgement of this pick. They will get plenty of help from conservative republicans who do take this pick seriously, not to mention those of whom were pretty well strung along during the VP stakes.
This is going to get ugly.
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