Friday, February 8, 2008

What's the end game?

The Democratic primary has proven to be a fascinating case-study. The rookie politician against the cagey veteran. Along the way, we've had racial, ethnic, and gender thrown into the mix, producing high-emotions and very divided results.

At this point, there is no practical way for either Obama or Clinton to earn the pledged delegates needed for the nomination. Super delegates will decide the election. By all accounts, Obama will be poised to go into the convention with a slight lead in delegates and a more firm lead in states won. The popular vote will likely be pretty evenly split. Already, the Clinton machine is grinding in the background, creating noise about seating the banned Florida and Michigan delegates. What a nightmare this would be...with the potential to disenfranchise black voters across the country.

I don't see a way for Clinton to win this without going ugly and twisting arms. Obama's campaign is inspiring, has attracted legions of new and young voters, and has all the energy. Scenes of him bouncing down the steps at an airport compare very favorably with the low-energy pictures of Clinton after super Tuesday.

I don't envy Howard Dean. Along with other party stalwarts, he'll be mediating/negotiating this mess sometime in May. The Dems can't afford for this to carry on into and past May.