I think that Hilary is back in the picture. Long shot, sure, but Obama has been more than coy in recent weeks. His appearances and visits with Tim Kaine and Evan Baye have been designed to create buzz about the VP pick and it's been very successful. The chattering class has been giving their very important opinions about each and how they might help Obama.
This is called controlling the message. Obama's team has been incredibly gifted at controlling the cable news cycle, drowning out any message that McCain wants to get out. It is impossible to overstate how effective this tactic has been. Leaking out cancelled events and meeting times, campaign events juggled to suggest breaking news, and all this without overt manipulation. Obama is demonstrating that soft power can be extremely effective.
Which got me thinking. Conventional wisdom is that an Obama/Clinton ticket can't work, that neither trusts the other completely. What if the CW is wrong? Can you imagine if the VP pick is kept under wraps until the convention? Now imagine that the pick will be announced at the convention - in prime time. Ratings would be unbelievable. And if Obama and Clinton walk out on stage together to make this announcement, it would be an incredible political moment.
Now, there are many downsides to this ticket, no doubt. Count me as one who distrusts the Clintons immensely, but if Obama and Clinton can mend their fences and come together, it could be an unbeatable ticket.
Sunday, August 10, 2008
Obama's rope-a-dope
As more than a casual observer of modern-day politics, I have been appreciating Obama'a political gifts. Win or lose this race, and I think it is his to win, he has demonstrated that he is a brilliant politician. It is the type of brilliance, though, that does not blind you. Obama is easy to underestimate...he is understated, he is positive, he is wry.
Obama watched the republicans disassemble the Kerry/Edwards ticket in '04. McCain has most of the '04 republican crew on his staff, so the strategy is fairly easy to predict. This group is attacking Obama on his strength (popularity, ability to draw large crowds, excellent speaking ability) and are hoping that they can get under Obama's skin and make him seem angry. Thus far, Obama has been cool (sometimes too much so) and more recently has turned to a little mockery to strike back. This seems to be a better counter for Obama - as he appears to be having some fun with McCain, which should irritate McCain all the more.
Kerry picked Edwards sometime in June in '04 giving the repubs much time to focus on the ticket. This year, Obama has kept the repubs (and the media) guessing - as each day goes by, the republicans lose another day to gather information and formulate attacks on the ticket. And while this is all happening, the focus remains Obama vs McCain, young vs age, new vs old, change vs same. I think Obama wins in these mini-battles.
Similar to his battle with Clinton, Obama is absorbing all the attacks by McCain. He is dodging and weaving, allowing McCain to lob all he has at him. As long as McCain fails to connect, and he hasn't, Obama is content to keep his campaign on the high road and control the message. McCain must be completely irritated at not being able to get his message out. Obama speaks, and everyone listens; McCain speaks and everyone yawns.
Obama is using the Olympics to cast a very positive image of himself. His latest ad doesn't even mention McCain. As Obama introduces himself to more of the public, what they are seeing simply doesn't jive with McCain's attacks.
I see more of this going through Labor Day, with the possibility of McCain going more negative. Clinton made many of the same mistakes that McCain is making. Too negative, too much focus on her opponent, not enough focus on local issues and the GOTV efforts.
Having watched the republicans destroy many good democrats over the years, I must admit that there are times when I want BO to strike back harder. But I look at what he has accomplished - and chiefly among those accomplishments is beating the premier brand in Democratic politics in the past 40 years, and becoming the first African-American nominee for President of the US. He has surrounded himself with big thinkers and intelligent people. Sure, they're going to make gaffes, but so far they have limited the damage.
I think they deserve the right to run the campaign as they deem without second guessing - at least not from my section in the bleachers.
Obama watched the republicans disassemble the Kerry/Edwards ticket in '04. McCain has most of the '04 republican crew on his staff, so the strategy is fairly easy to predict. This group is attacking Obama on his strength (popularity, ability to draw large crowds, excellent speaking ability) and are hoping that they can get under Obama's skin and make him seem angry. Thus far, Obama has been cool (sometimes too much so) and more recently has turned to a little mockery to strike back. This seems to be a better counter for Obama - as he appears to be having some fun with McCain, which should irritate McCain all the more.
Kerry picked Edwards sometime in June in '04 giving the repubs much time to focus on the ticket. This year, Obama has kept the repubs (and the media) guessing - as each day goes by, the republicans lose another day to gather information and formulate attacks on the ticket. And while this is all happening, the focus remains Obama vs McCain, young vs age, new vs old, change vs same. I think Obama wins in these mini-battles.
Similar to his battle with Clinton, Obama is absorbing all the attacks by McCain. He is dodging and weaving, allowing McCain to lob all he has at him. As long as McCain fails to connect, and he hasn't, Obama is content to keep his campaign on the high road and control the message. McCain must be completely irritated at not being able to get his message out. Obama speaks, and everyone listens; McCain speaks and everyone yawns.
Obama is using the Olympics to cast a very positive image of himself. His latest ad doesn't even mention McCain. As Obama introduces himself to more of the public, what they are seeing simply doesn't jive with McCain's attacks.
I see more of this going through Labor Day, with the possibility of McCain going more negative. Clinton made many of the same mistakes that McCain is making. Too negative, too much focus on her opponent, not enough focus on local issues and the GOTV efforts.
Having watched the republicans destroy many good democrats over the years, I must admit that there are times when I want BO to strike back harder. But I look at what he has accomplished - and chiefly among those accomplishments is beating the premier brand in Democratic politics in the past 40 years, and becoming the first African-American nominee for President of the US. He has surrounded himself with big thinkers and intelligent people. Sure, they're going to make gaffes, but so far they have limited the damage.
I think they deserve the right to run the campaign as they deem without second guessing - at least not from my section in the bleachers.
Friday, August 8, 2008
The future of energy
There are so many reasons why 2008 is a watershed election year in the US. Our foriegn policy is in a shambles, our economy is reeling from a banking crisis that has yet to hit bottom, and there are stark choices to be made regarding our dependence on oil. It is this oil dependence that has me most concerned.
The republicans are essentially using the high cost of oil as a political wedge with no clear solution. Of course, they are touting more drilling, here, there, and everywhere, but this is not a viable answer. Sure, there's a limited amount of oil reserves off our shores, but if we start drilling today, we're not likely to see any oil for a decade or so. On top of this, the reserves barely amount to a 7 month world supply - certainly not enough to affect global prices.
We are rapidly approaching the tipping point of oil as energy. It is becoming increasingly expensive, to the point where it may be too costly to maintain the "American" way of life. We need to make significant changes in our wasteful lifestyles - from driving way too much (I'm constantly amazed at the number of cars on our highways with just one occupant), to excessive use of air conditioning, to wasteful dietary habits - and we need to develop alternative energy sources. We may be nearing the point where we can no longer afford oil, nor will we be able to afford to develop these alternative energy sources.
What's needed are sound policies; better infrastructure for public transportation, tax incentives to manufacture and purchase fuel efficient cars, higher taxes on petroleum based products - particularly for non-essential items, and initiatives to educate consumers on how to be more energy savvy.
The republicans spent the better part of the last two weeks mocking Obama on tire pressure, but it is precisely these types of efforts that will help wean us off oil.
The republicans are essentially using the high cost of oil as a political wedge with no clear solution. Of course, they are touting more drilling, here, there, and everywhere, but this is not a viable answer. Sure, there's a limited amount of oil reserves off our shores, but if we start drilling today, we're not likely to see any oil for a decade or so. On top of this, the reserves barely amount to a 7 month world supply - certainly not enough to affect global prices.
We are rapidly approaching the tipping point of oil as energy. It is becoming increasingly expensive, to the point where it may be too costly to maintain the "American" way of life. We need to make significant changes in our wasteful lifestyles - from driving way too much (I'm constantly amazed at the number of cars on our highways with just one occupant), to excessive use of air conditioning, to wasteful dietary habits - and we need to develop alternative energy sources. We may be nearing the point where we can no longer afford oil, nor will we be able to afford to develop these alternative energy sources.
What's needed are sound policies; better infrastructure for public transportation, tax incentives to manufacture and purchase fuel efficient cars, higher taxes on petroleum based products - particularly for non-essential items, and initiatives to educate consumers on how to be more energy savvy.
The republicans spent the better part of the last two weeks mocking Obama on tire pressure, but it is precisely these types of efforts that will help wean us off oil.
Thursday, August 7, 2008
Aberrant Behavior
I'm no longer surprised when the cable outlets focus like a laser beam on missing white children. Particularly when the parent/spouse/sibling is under suspicion. There's a baby missing in Florida, and the mother is the chief/only suspect at this point, and the cable shows are devoting HOURS to this.
In a way, we have become such a voyeuristic society, and prefer to recieve our scandalous entertainment through the aberrant lives of others. This also makes sense with what the offerings are on television. The TeeVee is loaded with reality-based shows and other popular shows have included dramas where people fight for their survival without any technological advantages. Pure shit, in other words.
Back to the baby in Florida. Now, I'm not saying this doesn't merit some news coverage. It almost certainly does, particularly local coverage. News coverage can create awareness and generate information that might help solve the case.
But that's not what's happening. We're getting full-blown, minute by minute analysis of the case, complete with psychoanalysis of the mom, grandparents, siblings and neighbors. Jeepers, they're even broadcasting telephone conversations between the family members.
Some of this is creepy. Some of it is sad. Some of it is ugly. All in all, it says more about the viewers and the state of broadcast media than it does of this poor family.
In a way, we have become such a voyeuristic society, and prefer to recieve our scandalous entertainment through the aberrant lives of others. This also makes sense with what the offerings are on television. The TeeVee is loaded with reality-based shows and other popular shows have included dramas where people fight for their survival without any technological advantages. Pure shit, in other words.
Back to the baby in Florida. Now, I'm not saying this doesn't merit some news coverage. It almost certainly does, particularly local coverage. News coverage can create awareness and generate information that might help solve the case.
But that's not what's happening. We're getting full-blown, minute by minute analysis of the case, complete with psychoanalysis of the mom, grandparents, siblings and neighbors. Jeepers, they're even broadcasting telephone conversations between the family members.
Some of this is creepy. Some of it is sad. Some of it is ugly. All in all, it says more about the viewers and the state of broadcast media than it does of this poor family.
Wednesday, August 6, 2008
Energy Policy
It seems to me that the Republican energy plan can be summed up in three parts:
1. Increase the noise level about more drilling.
2. Block any Democratic initiative to craft sensible energy legislation.
3. Blame the Democrats for rising fuel costs.
Pretty specious, but not surprising.
It just doesn't seem to matter to these petty people that there are millions of Americans who are struggling. More drilling is a political argument, not a viable solution - more drilling will have no economic impact for at least 20 years.
On top of this, if you can stand the debauchery, is the Republican mockery of Obama for suggesting we inflate our car tires to the proper pressure. McCain and his minions are hawking $25 tire pressure gauges while laughing at the notion of saving a few hundred dollars. I suppose McCain's financial worries were over when he married a multi-millionaire heiress, so he can laugh all he wants.
The truth is that there is no panacea for reducing rising oil costs. It's going to take a few hundred initiatives similar to proper tire inflation to take the first few steps. We need to buy some valuable time to develop alternative energy because we've wasted 8 years with an incompetent administration.
Interestingly, Republicans are in an unfamiliar position on energy. Basically, what they're telling us is that there's nothing we can do as individuals to help reduce our demand. We must depend on the "adults" in their party to make these energy decisions.
Oy!
1. Increase the noise level about more drilling.
2. Block any Democratic initiative to craft sensible energy legislation.
3. Blame the Democrats for rising fuel costs.
Pretty specious, but not surprising.
It just doesn't seem to matter to these petty people that there are millions of Americans who are struggling. More drilling is a political argument, not a viable solution - more drilling will have no economic impact for at least 20 years.
On top of this, if you can stand the debauchery, is the Republican mockery of Obama for suggesting we inflate our car tires to the proper pressure. McCain and his minions are hawking $25 tire pressure gauges while laughing at the notion of saving a few hundred dollars. I suppose McCain's financial worries were over when he married a multi-millionaire heiress, so he can laugh all he wants.
The truth is that there is no panacea for reducing rising oil costs. It's going to take a few hundred initiatives similar to proper tire inflation to take the first few steps. We need to buy some valuable time to develop alternative energy because we've wasted 8 years with an incompetent administration.
Interestingly, Republicans are in an unfamiliar position on energy. Basically, what they're telling us is that there's nothing we can do as individuals to help reduce our demand. We must depend on the "adults" in their party to make these energy decisions.
Oy!
Friday, June 6, 2008
Clinton and Obama meet
Looks like Barak and Hilary held a no aides meeting last evening. Person to person. I'm sure their conversation was broad ranging, and it is almost a certainty that they discussed the VP issue.
I feel about Obama the way I feel about Bill Belichek and Theo Epstein in the Boston sports world. The latter two have put impressive management teams together and surrounded themselves with intelligent, competent people. The results are significant by any standards, let alone in the era of salary caps and free agency.
In the final analysis, I can offer no advice to the person who has overcome so many obstacles to become the Democratic nominee, and odds on favorite, for President of the US. He has demonstrated good judgement and excellent leadership throughout this process. Most recently, his handling of the Clinton refusal to concede has been very impressive. There are many pros and cons to every VP choice and I have no doubt Obama will choose wisely.
I can't wait to nod my head knowingly when he announces the person...
Blogging is hard
It's easy to be distracted from blogging. My travel schedule interferes with daily routines and, you know, once one or two days go by, what's another week. Next thing you know, months pass.
Anyway, here goes again.
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